Part of: August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)

Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,234.

Categories: Science, Weather, Global Temp

Notable Trades

Serial trader adds to No

A serial cross-market trader made a large additional No bet in a thin, wide-spread market, though their historical win rate does not clearly exceed the average odds paid.

  • This trader has participated across 35 markets and 29 events, with $114,875 in total activity.
  • The $1,234 bet exceeded the market’s 24-hour volume in a thin market with a 14-point bid-ask spread.
  • The trader is adding to an existing No position at 74¢, while No currently trades near 79¢.

$1,234 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0x23d8...0288 Outcome 22831806, $2,961 (82% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 31519760, $1,548
  3. 0x34db...1b63 Outcome 22831806, $526
  4. 0x7300...e52c Outcome 22831806, $360
  5. 0x2141...7fa2 Outcome 22831806, $200
  6. 0x6816...8484 Outcome 22831806, $100
  7. 0xc518...2594 Outcome 22831806, $65
  8. 0x510f...a43c Outcome 22831806, $30
  9. 0xa3e2...fdf8 Outcome 22831806, $27
  10. 0x43cb...84df Outcome 22831806, $15

Related Theses

Fed holds rates steady

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2026 will be hottest on record

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Global warming misses August 2026 range

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Global temperatures exceed 1.29°C

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June warming hits 1.15-1.19°C

Covers 2 related markets

NYC AQI will stay below 100

Covers 1 related market

July warming hits 1.20-1.24°C

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July 2026 will be hottest on record

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Fed holds rates steady in July 2026

Covers 1 related market

May warming hits 1.10-1.14C

Covers 3 related markets

Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?

ResolvedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)$1,234 tracked1 signalScienceWeatherGlobal Temp

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Price History — “No
101¢
88¢
74¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will global temperature increase by between 1.42ºC and 1.45ºC in August 2026?

16d ago

$1,234 on No at 74¢

Related Theses