Part of: Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,797.

Categories: Privates, Finance, Stripe, Payments, Tech, Big Tech

Notable Trades

Quiet-market No conviction

A historically active wallet put $3.8k on No in a very thin Stripe valuation market, making up most of recent volume despite no standout win-rate edge.

  • This wallet put $3.8k on No in a market with only about $4.2k total volume.
  • The bet was more than 4x the prior 24h volume, suggesting a concentrated view in a thin market.
  • The wallet has a long history and is up $22.7k lifetime, though it wins only 47% of resolved bets.

$3,797 on No | Wallet win rate: 47%

Top Holders

  1. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 29704357, $255
  2. 0xa47c...ed25 Outcome 29704357, $141
  3. 0xe1af...171a Outcome 29704357, $120
  4. 0xb41e...11fd Outcome 29704357, $100
  5. 0xc1fd...948e Outcome 29704357, $79
  6. 0x4916...f56f Outcome 29704357, $46
  7. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 29704357, $45
  8. 0xee75...f59a Outcome 29704357, $39
  9. 0x95f5...779f Outcome 29704357, $25
  10. 0x4d8f...f631 Outcome 29704357, $21 (59% win rate)

Related Theses

Stripe hits $160B, misses $165B

Covers 3 related markets

Bending Spoons closes at $25B-$28B

Covers 2 related markets

Glean valuation stays below $5.5B

Covers 2 related markets

Anduril stays below $85B

Covers 2 related markets

Kraken valuation tops $13B

Covers 2 related markets

Epic avoids middle valuation

Covers 2 related markets

Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?

ResolvedWill Stripe's valuation hit __ by June 30?$3,797 tracked1 signalPrivatesFinanceStripePaymentsTechBig Tech

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stripe's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Notable Trades

Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?

63d ago

$3,797 on No at 73¢

Related Theses