Part of: SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
This prediction market asks whether SpaceX’s market capitalization will be between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion at the closing price on its first day of public trading. If SpaceX does not IPO by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No IPO before 2028.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,680 in smart money activity, with recent signals showing high-win-rate traders buying or flipping to NO.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,597.
Categories: Tech, Business, Finance, IPOs, Elon Musk, Big Tech, SpaceX, IPO, Space, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100
Notable Trades
90% winner buying NO
Surfaced because the bettor has a 90% resolved-market win record with positive lifetime P&L and is taking a fresh meaningful No position.
- This bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved bets and is up $11.3K lifetime.
- They are buying No at 56¢, betting against SpaceX closing IPO day between $2.0T and $2.5T.
- Their past wins beat market-implied odds by about 23 percentage points.
$1,680 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
90% winner flips No
Surfaced because a profitable 90% winner with a documented edge made a fresh, much larger No bet despite the alert's low composite score.
- This bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved bets and is up $11.3k lifetime.
- They bought $1.4k of No after closing only a tiny prior Yes position, suggesting a real thesis shift.
- Entry at 55¢ implies they see SpaceX landing outside this valuation range as underpriced.
$1,430 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
83% winner buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with 83% historical win rate is fading the Yes outcome, converting to a BUY No at 56¢.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $130K lifetime.
- They are taking the opposite side of Yes at 44¢, equivalent to buying No at 56¢.
- The bet is large relative to recent activity, about 75% of the signal’s 24h volume baseline.
$1,487 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $65,692
- 0x5021...9906 — No, $8,601 (90% win rate)
- 0x4e25...d7a7 — No, $7,757 (65% win rate)
- 0x2add...9b43 — Yes, $7,672 (25% win rate)
- 0xe74d...22fd — Yes, $7,397 (33% win rate)
- 0xb962...33d8 — Yes, $5,771
- 0x9dfe...b3dd — Yes, $5,533 (65% win rate)
- 0xf797...0bf2 — Yes, $4,960 (48% win rate)
- 0xf2aa...21fb — Yes, $4,470 (43% win rate)
- 0x5a21...9318 — Yes, $3,752 (60% win rate)
