Part of: Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $73,169.

Categories: Esports, Dota 2, Games, Sports

Notable Trades

90% winner buying underdog

A highly profitable 90% win-rate wallet bought Aurora, backed by serial cross-market success and broader one-sided Aurora flow, though the price has since moved against the entry.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $209,816 lifetime.
  • They are a serial esports trader across 62 events with a 90% win rate.
  • Five wallets bought Aurora for $22,006, creating one-sided flow behind the same outcome.

$1,387 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 89%

92% sharp backing Aurora

A highly profitable 92% win-rate wallet bought Aurora alongside one-sided cluster flow, despite the price moving against its 44¢ entry.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved positions and is up $472k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 195 events with the same 92% hit rate.
  • Five wallets bought Aurora in the same direction for $22k total, and market volume spiked 17.5x.

$1,200 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 71%

New profitable esports whale

A 19-hour-old wallet is making repeat large bets after an early profitable win, with a 25x pre-event volume spike adding support.

  • This 19-hour-old wallet has already placed $12.9k in flagged bets and is up about $4k on its first resolved trade.
  • The bettor put $8k on Aurora at 50¢, a meaningful single-position bet even in an active market.
  • Market activity is running about 25x above normal before the match, suggesting broader pre-event interest.

$8,000 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 100%

92% winner backing Aurora

Elite esports bettor with a 92% resolved win rate and $472k profit bought Aurora at 53¢, making the wallet track record the main signal despite modest trade size.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $472k lifetime.
  • They have a long cross-market track record across 195 events and $860k in volume.
  • Entry at 53¢ suggests they see Aurora as meaningfully undervalued in Game 1.

$1,995 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 71%

New profitable esports whale

A 6-day-old wallet with repeated large profitable bets and a 5-0 resolved record bought nearly $5k of Natus Vincere at 49¢.

  • This new bettor is 5-for-5 on resolved trades and is up $53k so far.
  • They have now triggered 17 large-bet alerts, totaling $56.7k in flagged activity.
  • The $5k buy at 49¢ shows conviction despite the market now pricing Natus Vincere around 46¢.

$4,985 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 100%

Sharp cluster piled into favorite

Strong one-sided Natus Vincere flow from seven wallets includes two exceptionally profitable sharp bettors and coincides with a major pre-event price move from the high-50s/low-60s to 94%.

  • Two proven bettors joined this move: one wins 97% of resolved bets and is up $258K, another wins 92% and is up $190K.
  • Seven wallets bought the same side for $17.4K, pushing Natus Vincere from around 58–82¢ to 94¢.
  • Market volume spiked 22x and Natus Vincere is up 46.5 percentage points on the day.

$17,390 on Natus Vincere

96% sharp scaling in

Elite 96% win-rate wallet with $2.39M lifetime profit bought $30k of Natus Vincere amid a major pre-event volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $2.39M lifetime.
  • They put $30,000 on Natus Vincere, a large bet relative to recent market activity.
  • This wallet is a proven serial cross-market trader, with 121 events and $6.2M traded.

$30,000 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 96%

Profitable serial esports trader

Profitable high-volume esports trader bought Natus Vincere into a major pre-event volume spike, suggesting a real directional thesis despite only moderate composite score.

  • This bettor is up $109,857 lifetime across 719 resolved trades.
  • They have traded 82 markets across 72 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • Market activity spiked 1,255x before the match, and they entered Natus Vincere at 49¢.

$1,961 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 60%

90% winner backs Aurora

A highly profitable 90% win-rate wallet made a large Aurora buy that was 269% of the market's 24h volume, backed by a long cross-market track record.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $657K lifetime.
  • The $6.3K Aurora buy was nearly 3x this market’s entire 24h volume.
  • This wallet has traded 334 markets across 184 events with the same 90% hit rate.

$6,251 on Aurora | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

  1. 0xffe9...a70e Outcome 54910916, $24,590 (56% win rate)
  2. 0x4183...96bf Outcome 54910916, $15,926 (100% win rate)
  3. 0xf070...ac55 Outcome 54910916, $11,802 (91% win rate)
  4. 0x507e...beae Outcome 54910916, $10,943 (50% win rate)
  5. 0xbb35...b62a Outcome 54910916, $7,690 (54% win rate)
  6. 0x04f6...f24a Outcome 54910916, $6,644 (50% win rate)
  7. 0x05a7...42e6 Outcome 54910916, $4,523 (98% win rate)
  8. 0x03a2...7e3e Outcome 54910916, $3,724
  9. 0xec98...afcd Outcome 54910916, $3,340 (49% win rate)
  10. 0xdb83...1e50 Outcome 54910916, $3,046 (68% win rate)

Related Theses

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Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

ResolvedDota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs$73,169 tracked9 signalsEsportsDota 2GamesSports

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 4 match between Natus Vincere and Aurora in the DreamLeague Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 19 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Aurora. This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Notable Trades

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

1d ago

$1,387 on Aurora at 49¢

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

1d ago

$1,200 on Aurora at 44¢

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

1d ago

$8,000 on Aurora at 50¢

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

1d ago

$1,995 on Aurora at 53¢

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

1d ago

$4,985 on Natus Vincere at 49¢

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

1d ago

$17,390 on Natus Vincere at 64¢

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

1d ago

$30,000 on Natus Vincere at 49¢

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

1d ago

$1,961 on Natus Vincere at 49¢

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner

1d ago

$6,251 on Aurora at 53¢

Related Theses