Part of: Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?

Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?

This Polymarket market asks whether Elon Musk will be awarded or receive at least $10 billion in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al. against Altman/OpenAI. It resolves by December 31, 2026, based on qualifying cash damages, court judgments, jury verdicts, or settlements during or before the initial trial proceedings. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,425 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, including a recent thin-market Yes whale alert.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,425.

Categories: Tech, OpenAI, AI, Big Tech, Courts, Musk v Altman

Notable Trades

Thin-market Yes whale

A single wallet made a large thin-market bet equivalent to buying Yes, taking over 11x recent 24h volume on a wide-spread legal market.

  • This bet was over 11x the market’s recent 24h volume, a strong conviction move in a quiet market.
  • The trader effectively bought Yes at 11¢ while the market is now around 16¢.
  • The wallet has won 95% of resolved bets, though mostly on heavy favorites.

$3,425 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

  1. 0x4e39...8cbf — Outcome 77201626, $7,554
  2. 0xa4fa...abce — Outcome 77201626, $2,097
  3. 0x662a...77b7 — Outcome 77201626, $1,828 (38% win rate)
  4. 0x5647...de1d — Outcome 77201626, $1,303
  5. 0x134b...a5fd — Outcome 77201626, $942
  6. 0x8d30...c338 — Outcome 77201626, $710
  7. 0x403d...b04d — Outcome 77201626, $500
  8. 0xf71c...4dab — Outcome 77201626, $500
  9. 0x610e...b852 — Outcome 77201626, $485
  10. 0x7841...7273 — Outcome 77201626, $483 (58% win rate)

Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?

181dElon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?$3,425 tracked1 signalTechOpenAIAIBig TechCourtsMusk v Altman

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count. If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market. If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?

57d ago

$3,425 on Yes at 11¢