Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count. If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market. If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,425.

Categories: Tech, OpenAI, AI, Big Tech, Courts, Musk v Altman

Notable Trades

Thin-market Yes whale

A single wallet made a large thin-market bet equivalent to buying Yes, taking over 11x recent 24h volume on a wide-spread legal market.

  • This bet was over 11x the market’s recent 24h volume, a strong conviction move in a quiet market.
  • The trader effectively bought Yes at 11¢ while the market is now around 16¢.
  • The wallet has won 95% of resolved bets, though mostly on heavy favorites.

$3,425 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

  1. 0x662a...77b7 Yes, $1,828 (38% win rate)
  2. 0xc602...7fc1 No, $1,211 (39% win rate)
  3. 0xbbdf...ee72 No, $1,099
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $1,002 (48% win rate)
  5. 0x7495...7fcf Yes, $863
  6. 0x49ac...2f1e Yes, $714
  7. 0xd5b9...e44e No, $700
  8. 0x90ee...801b No, $678
  9. 0x04cc...48ac No, $650 (75% win rate)
  10. 0x73d2...f9b7 No, $600 (76% win rate)

Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?

238d$3,425 tracked1 signalTechOpenAIAIBig TechCourtsMusk v Altman
Yes
32¢
No
68¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count. If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market. If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
96¢
81¢
67¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?

2h ago

$3,425 on Yes at 11¢

11¢32¢21¢
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? | PolySpotter