Part of: Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...?

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture the entirety of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, by May 31, 2026, based on the Institute for the Study of War map. It resolves “Yes” only if the whole municipality is shaded red on the ISW map by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter currently tracks $2,283 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including recent sharp interest on the NO side.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, (48.303080° N, 37.192568° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Pokrovsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rwDQehLsZAUsquVX7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,283.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Profitable sharp buying dip

A profitable 82% winner bought Yes on a thin geopolitics market, though the price has since moved sharply against the entry.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $15.6K lifetime.
  • They put $2.3K into a thin market with only $2.7K liquidity, showing real conviction.
  • The market has fallen to 16% after their 61% entry, so the key signal is the wallet’s track record rather than recent momentum.

$2,283 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Perfect-record bettor buys NO

A perfect-record profitable wallet made a $5k NO bet that was large relative to this thin geopolitical market.

  • This bettor is 13-for-13 on resolved trades and is up $13k lifetime.
  • The $5k bet was 74% of the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a thin book.
  • They bought No at 89¢ and it has already moved to 92¢.

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0eea...726b Yes, $6,471 (76% win rate)
  2. 0xbfba...7567 No, $5,627 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x5d91...3578 Yes, $2,578 (49% win rate)
  4. 0xeb75...446d Yes, $2,158
  5. 0x1d8a...8730 No, $1,950
  6. 0xc5a3...883a Yes, $1,790
  7. 0xe99b...0443 Yes, $1,623
  8. 0xb57a...b8c3 No, $1,440 (76% win rate)
  9. 0xff52...4546 No, $1,400
  10. 0xc92c...6f15 No, $1,263

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

10dWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...?$7,283 tracked2 signalsGeopoliticsUkraineUkraine Map
Yes
96¢
No
4¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, (48.303080° N, 37.192568° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Pokrovsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rwDQehLsZAUsquVX7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Price History — “Yes
97¢
54¢
11¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

1h ago

$2,283 on Yes at 61¢

61¢96¢35¢

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

19d ago

$5,000 on No at 89¢

89¢4¢85¢

Related Theses