Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $17,827.

Categories: Bitcoin, Weekly, Multi Strikes, Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring

Notable Trades

Profitable serial timer

Serial near-resolution bettor with strong lifetime profit bought No on a BTC cutoff market about 58 minutes before resolution, despite the market heavily favoring Yes.

This bettor has a pattern of near-resolution bets and is up $31,294 lifetime.
They bought No at 12¢ while the market still gives Yes an 89% chance.
The trade landed about 58 minutes before the BTC price cutoff, where timing can matter.

$1,064 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

86% crypto cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate is buying Yes on a BTC level market after a strong 1-day move.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $13.8k lifetime.
They have traded across 26 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market crypto strategy.
They bought Yes at 84¢ after the market moved 16.5 points in the last day.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

85% winner buying momentum

Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 85% resolved win rate with positive P&L and is buying Yes despite the market already moving up 18 points today.

This bettor has won 85% of resolved trades and is up $1,135 lifetime.
They bought Yes at 87¢ after the market moved up 18 points today, suggesting confidence the rally holds.
The market is liquid with a tight 1¢ spread, so the trade is less likely to be noise from thin order books.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

92% win-rate BTC bettor

Sharp BTC bettor with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes despite already-high odds.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $34,767 lifetime.
They bought $3,828 of Yes at 87¢, implying confidence even after a 23-point daily move.
The market is liquid with a tight spread, so this looks like a copyable sharp-wallet signal rather than noise.

$3,828 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

86% serial cross-market winner

Serial cross-market Bitcoin bettor has an 86% resolved win rate and positive P&L, making this Yes buy worth surfacing despite only one trade signal.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up $13.8K lifetime.
They have traded across 26 events with $93K in related cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven pattern.
Bought Yes at 79¢, slightly above the current 76¢ market, implying conviction that BTC stays above $80K at resolution.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable serial crypto trader

Serial cross-market crypto trader with a large profitable history bought Yes at 90%, despite only a moderate standalone signal.

This bettor has a long track record: 1,455 resolved trades, 60% winners, and about $400k in profit.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 43 events and have put $581k into similar event-linked positions.
The bet is high-conviction at 90¢, implying they see Bitcoin above $80k as very likely by resolution.

$2,434 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%

85% win-rate crypto trader

Sharp serial cross-market BTC trader with an 85% resolved win rate is buying Yes with meaningful size despite only modest low-activity signal.

This bettor has won 85% of resolved trades and is up $12,216 lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable crypto-market edge.
The $3,000 Yes buy comes after an 8-point one-day move, adding to bullish momentum.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

85% winner buying Yes

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a strong 85% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $12,216 lifetime.
They put $2,000 on Yes at 82¢ after the market moved 19 points in the past day.
Their average winning entry is 83¢, close to this 82¢ buy.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

0x7079...da28 — Outcome 44834907, $29,292 (65% win rate)
0x9b6b...9a8a — Outcome 44834907, $17,106
0x1f6b...267e — Outcome 44834907, $17,088
0x2165...8c06 — Outcome 44834907, $16,184 (64% win rate)
0x00c8...9ccd — Outcome 44834907, $11,110 (79% win rate)
0x2cce...6e85 — Outcome 44834907, $5,976 (72% win rate)
0xde6e...0169 — Outcome 44834907, $4,509 (57% win rate)
0xb4fc...a926 — Outcome 44834907, $2,969 (54% win rate)
0x5b40...0860 — Outcome 44834907, $2,134
0x6ef9...afac — Outcome 44834907, $2,000

Related Theses

Bitcoin settles between $80k-$82k

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 10 related markets

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?

ResolvedBitcoin above ___ on May 12?$17,827 tracked8 signalsBitcoinWeeklyMulti StrikesCryptoCrypto PricesRecurringHide From New

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.