Part of: SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
This Polymarket asks whether SpaceX’s official closing market capitalization on its first trading day after an IPO will be above $1.2 trillion. The market resolves “No” if SpaceX does not IPO by December 31, 2027, and resolution is based on the primary exchange’s official listing price and outstanding shares. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,620 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,620.
Categories: Tech, Big Tech, Elon Musk, IPO, SpaceX, IPOs, Climate & Science
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market bear
A profitable wallet is taking the cheap NO side in a thin long-dated SpaceX IPO market while also positioning across four related markets.
- This bettor is up $32.7K lifetime with a 61% record across 41 resolved bets.
- They have $33.6K positioned across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Selling Yes at 90¢ is equivalent to buying No at 10¢, a high-upside bet if SpaceX does not IPO by 2027 or closes below $1.2T.
$1,620 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%
Top Holders
- 0x25dc...e33b — No, $12,293 (54% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $10,000 (47% win rate)
- 0x03e9...38fd — Yes, $10,000
- 0x38a1...d1e4 — No, $9,373
- 0xf566...1386 — No, $6,000 (60% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $5,060 (89% win rate)
- 0x90ed...b5bc — No, $4,765 (24% win rate)
- 0x3e0a...342d — Yes, $3,468
- 0xd600...b66e — No, $2,887
- 0x59db...c353 — Yes, $2,010
Related Theses
SpaceX IPO tops $3T
Covers 5 related markets
