Part of: CA-28 House Election Winner
Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat?
This prediction market tracks whether the Republican Party candidate will win California’s CA-28 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate after the November 2026 House race is conclusively called. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,613 in smart money and 1 smart money signal on this market, including recent favorite-buying activity from a high-win-rate trader.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,405.
Categories: Politics, Nov 4 Elections, Elections, House Elections, Midterms, California Midterm
Notable Trades
90% winner buying favorite
Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the wallet has a strong 90% record on 20 resolved bets and is buying the heavily favored No side with meaningful size.
- This bettor has won 90% of 20 resolved trades and is up $5.4K lifetime.
- They put $3.6K on No, adding conviction to the current 90¢ favorite.
- The market is fairly quiet, so this single bet was a meaningful share of recent activity.
$3,613 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
90% winner buying favorite
Weak low-activity signal, but the wallet has a strong 90% record over 20 resolved bets with positive P&L, making this a copy-worthy sharp-wallet trade despite modest size.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $5.4K lifetime.
- They are backing the 90¢ favorite, consistent with a history of winning on high-probability positions.
- The trade is modest versus market liquidity, but the wallet track record is the main signal.
$1,792 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xa7b4...b7b9 — Yes, $11,798 (67% win rate)
- 0x88bb...c12b — Yes, $10,000
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $7,085
- 0x9514...136f — No, $6,015 (90% win rate)
- 0x6d57...bfc5 — No, $4,663 (50% win rate)
- 0x120b...ee03 — No, $2,000
- 0x0130...fb49 — No, $881
- 0x75d1...7a5f — No, $702
- 0x9dd9...08bd — No, $339
- 0x04b9...79e0 — No, $179 (64% win rate)