Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16?
13 smart money signals detected, totaling $45,785.
Categories: Bitcoin, Weekly, Multi Strikes, Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring
Notable Trades
Profitable serial timer
A proven high-volume trader with $338k lifetime profit made a sizable near-resolution bet in a fast-moving BTC market, a pattern this wallet has repeated successfully across multiple markets.
- This bettor has made nearly 1,000 resolved trades and is up $338,767 lifetime.
- They placed a $5.8k bet about 50 minutes before resolution, and this wallet has 11 similar late bets across 7 markets.
- The market had a 10x volume spike and a 27-point Yes move, showing strong momentum around the trade.
$5,762 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable serial timer
A profitable high-volume serial timer bought Yes less than an hour before resolution into a market seeing a sharp pre-resolution volume and price spike, making the flow worth monitoring despite the modest single-ticket size.
- This bettor has made 1,242 resolved bets, is up $148k, and often bets in the final hour before resolution.
- The market saw a 10x volume spike and a 27-point Yes move, showing fast late flow into the same side.
- They bought Yes at 86¢ less than 50 minutes before resolution, a sign of conviction on a near-expiry market.
$1,277 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable BTC expiry trader
A high-volume BTC expiry market drew a profitable cross-market trader who effectively bought Yes at 49¢ nearly an hour before resolution, a price now well in the money at 68¢.
- This bettor has won 71% of 195 resolved trades, which stands out on short-term crypto markets.
- They effectively bought Yes at 49¢ by selling No, and the market has already moved to 68¢.
- The bet came during a 10.3x volume spike less than an hour before resolution in a very active market.
$3,816 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
92% win-rate BTC trader
A highly proven 92% win-rate trader sold No in this BTC market, equivalent to buying Yes around 32¢, and their trade coincided with a sharp 23-point move.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $67k across 352 bets
- They trade heavily across Polymarket with 531 markets and nearly $792k in total volume
- Selling No at 68¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 32¢, just before the market moved sharply
$2,248 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Repeat new wallet BTC bet
A very new wallet has repeatedly made sizable bets and is buying Yes at 23¢ equivalent pricing on a fast-moving BTC market, suggesting conviction despite limited track record.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already been flagged 14 times and put over $25.6k into notable trades
- Both trades are effectively buys of Yes at 23¢, implying the bettor sees the current 77¢ market price as too low earlier in the move
- The market jumped 31.5 points in a day, so this wallet was positioning into strong momentum rather than making a routine trade
$2,576 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale buying NO
A 1-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed sizable bets and is now building a $6.1k No position in a liquid BTC market at 29-32¢, suggesting deliberate conviction rather than random activity.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already triggered 11 large-bet alerts with over $20k flagged total
- This trader just bought $6.1k of No at 29-32¢, implying they see Bitcoin staying under $74k as mispriced
- The wallet is early but profitable so far, up $1.5k on its first two resolved bets
$6,078 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale buying BTC Yes
A 1-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed sizable bets and is again taking a clear bullish BTC position in a liquid daily market, suggesting fresh conviction worth tracking despite limited history.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already triggered 10 large-bet alerts with $18.2k flagged total
- All 3 trades here amount to buying Yes around 71-72¢ after converting from No sells
- The wallet is 2 for 2 so far and this market has strong activity with price up 6 points today
$5,769 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale buying BTC Yes
A 1-day-old wallet with repeated $14.6k flagged betting is adding another $4.3k bullish BTC position in a liquid intraday market, suggesting real conviction despite limited history.
- This 1-day-old wallet has already triggered 8 large-bet alerts and put $14.6k to work
- These trades are effectively buying Yes around 71-72¢ by selling No at 28-29¢
- The wallet is tiny-history but strong so far: 2 wins from 2 resolved bets and +$1.5k P&L
$4,319 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New wallet contrarian BTC bet
A 1-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed sizable bets and is now buying No at 28¢ into a fast-rising BTC market, suggesting deliberate contrarian conviction despite limited history.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts, with $12.4k flagged in total
- This trader is buying No at 28¢ while the market has jumped 19 points in a day, showing clear contrarian conviction
- Early results are strong: 2 wins from 2 resolved bets and +$1.5k profit on $3k invested
$1,062 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
New wallet BTC bull
A 1-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and is adding another sizable bullish Bitcoin position, suggesting early high-conviction flow worth watching despite limited track record.
- A 1-day-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts and put $11.4k to work
- This trade is effectively buying Yes at 70¢ on Bitcoin above $74k, adding fresh bullish conviction
- The wallet is 2 for 2 so far and up $1.5k, though the sample is still very small
$2,392 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xd4aa...d40c — Outcome 10394954, $11,112
- 0xc131...f290 — Outcome 10394954, $4,295
- 0x8296...7910 — Outcome 14134753, $4,019 (87% win rate)
- 0xde6e...0169 — Outcome 10394954, $3,941 (51% win rate)
- 0xa68f...5f55 — Outcome 10394954, $3,005 (32% win rate)
- 0xda3c...603b — Outcome 10394954, $2,784
- 0x0528...ca3f — Outcome 14134753, $2,073
- 0x70ff...a54d — Outcome 10394954, $1,856
- 0x997c...251e — Outcome 10394954, $1,200
- 0x76a1...4652 — Outcome 10394954, $1,103
