Part of: Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?
46 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,664,102.
Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FA Cup
Notable Trades
New wallet caught live move
An 11-day-old repeat large bettor put $5.3k on Yes at 80¢ before the market moved to 88¢, alongside a sharp upward price move.
- An 11-day-old wallet bought $5.3k of Yes at 80¢ and the market has already moved to 88¢.
- The price is up 29 points over the past day, suggesting strong momentum toward Manchester City winning.
- This is a repeat large-bet wallet with 7 positions already, though its resolved track record is still limited.
$5,272 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
9-wallet No fade
High-score alert driven by 9 wallets taking the No side, though this specific wallet appears to be closing a prior Yes position rather than opening a fresh No bet.
- Nine wallets took the same No side for $28.8K in the scan window.
- This brand-new wallet has made 6 positions and $8.0K in flagged bets in under 17 hours.
- The trade is equivalent to buying No at 21¢ after Yes jumped 18.5% today.
$1,556 on No | Wallet win rate: 33%
Sharp bettor fading Yes spike
A proven 89% winner is exiting a profitable Man City Yes position while broader one-sided flow is buying No, but this looks partly like profit-taking rather than pure fresh conviction.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $22.9K lifetime.
- They sold Yes after entering around 58¢, effectively taking the No side near 21¢ after a big price run-up.
- Nine wallets have recently bet the same No direction for $28.8K total.
$6,874 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Sharp joins 9-wallet No cluster
Sharp profitable wallet is effectively buying No alongside a 9-wallet one-sided cluster despite Manchester City Yes rallying sharply.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $3,775 lifetime.
- 9 wallets have all taken the No side, totaling $28,791 in the same direction.
- Selling Yes at 79¢ is equivalent to buying No at 21¢, fading a big recent City price move.
$1,460 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
93% winner joins Yes flow
Sharp wallet with a 93% historical win rate bought Yes and is aligned with a 4-wallet one-sided flow despite the market moving down afterward.
- This bettor has won 25 of 27 resolved trades and is up $6.1K lifetime.
- Four wallets are all buying the same side, totaling $35.9K on Yes.
- Entry at 44¢ implies they saw meaningful upside, and the market is now cheaper at 36¢.
$1,439 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner joins Yes flow
A highly profitable 93% win-rate bettor bought Manchester City Yes alongside strong one-sided flow from 7 wallets and a pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $2.66M lifetime.
- They are a serial sports/event trader across 427 events with a 93% hit rate.
- Seven wallets are all buying Yes, with $74K total one-sided flow into this market.
$11,270 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Profitable serial sharp joins Yes flow
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor flipped toward Yes alongside 7-wallet one-sided flow and a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 73% of nearly 6,000 resolved trades and is up about $9.1M lifetime.
- Seven wallets are all buying Yes, totaling about $74K in the same direction.
- The bettor had previously closed a No position and is now buying Yes at 48¢ as volume spikes 17x.
$7,915 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
New whale joins 7-wallet Yes push
High-conviction one-sided flow: a 6-day-old repeat whale bought $29.5k of Yes alongside 7 wallets totaling $74.4k during a 17x volume spike.
- A 6-day-old wallet put $29.5k on Yes and has now been flagged for $88.7k in large bets.
- 7 wallets are all buying the same side, with $74.4k total flowing into Yes.
- Volume is running 17x above normal, and this trade entered at 49¢ despite recent price weakness.
$29,458 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp funded cluster buying No
A highly profitable 89% win-rate bettor is buying No with linked-wallet and one-sided cluster support despite a very liquid market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $1.61M lifetime.
- Three funded wallets are all buying No, totaling about $26.6K in the same direction.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 34 events, with nearly $1.9M in tracked volume.
$22,297 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Profitable cluster buying Yes
Coordinated Yes-side flow is worth surfacing because five wallets are effectively buying Yes, including a very profitable high-volume trader and a serial cross-market bettor.
- Five wallets are effectively backing Yes with $13.5K around 49¢.
- One buyer has made $9.1M lifetime across nearly 6,000 resolved trades.
- This is a contrarian buy after Yes fell 11 points in the past day.
$13,513 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa136...97de — Outcome 78086340, $5,051,011 (100% win rate)
- 0x912a...2e6a — Outcome 78086340, $81,664 (86% win rate)
- 0x5966...f804 — Outcome 78086340, $75,000 (95% win rate)
- 0xbddf...c684 — Outcome 78086340, $65,254 (89% win rate)
- 0x2005...75ea — Outcome 78086340, $24,540 (55% win rate)
- 0xb44e...c2c6 — Outcome 78086340, $18,616 (92% win rate)
- 0xe24a...9de4 — Outcome 78086340, $15,000
- 0x6203...6280 — Outcome 78086340, $14,000 (38% win rate)
- 0xad6a...9dbd — Outcome 78086340, $12,259 (42% win rate)
- 0x1bc8...2f68 — Outcome 78086340, $10,569 (95% win rate)
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