Part of: World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages

Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,840.

Categories: FIFA World Cup, Sports, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Soccer, Team Props, Tournament Futures

Notable Trades

Sharp World Cup portfolio bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with an 88% track record is taking a contrarian No position as part of broader World Cup qualification positioning.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $169K lifetime.
They are positioning across 5 related World Cup markets with $21.6K deployed.
Buying No at 23¢ implies they see Croatia missing the knockout stage as underpriced.

$2,123 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%

98% winner buying Yes

Sharp-wallet override: despite a weak alert score, this bettor has a 98% resolved win rate and $43k lifetime profit, making the Croatia Yes buy worth surfacing.

This bettor has won 55 of 56 resolved trades and is up $43,182 lifetime.
They are buying Croatia Yes at 75¢, adding a clear directional bet despite the market drifting down 7 points this week.
This wallet has been flagged 5 times before, suggesting repeated large-position activity rather than a one-off bet.

$2,024 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Sharp World Cup portfolio bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with an 88% track record is taking a contrarian No position as part of broader World Cup qualification positioning.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $169K lifetime.
They are positioning across 5 related World Cup markets with $21.6K deployed.
Buying No at 23¢ implies they see Croatia missing the knockout stage as underpriced.

$3,080 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%

6-wallet linked contrarian

High composite alert from a linked-wallet cluster making an outsized No bet on a quiet market, with the wallet also showing positive lifetime P&L and related cross-market activity.

A 6-wallet funded cluster is behind this position, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
The $4.6K No buy is nearly 5.8x the market’s 24h volume, a large move for a quiet book.
This wallet is up $172K lifetime and has $20K positioned across 5 related markets.

$4,613 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

Top Holders

0x4c5e...8819 — Outcome 40250089, $8,554 (75% win rate)
0xfd9b...e829 — Outcome 40250089, $8,341
0x4d78...4cc1 — Outcome 40250089, $5,500 (70% win rate)
0xb3cf...0ebd — Outcome 40250089, $4,000 (81% win rate)
0xdd15...4a07 — Outcome 40250089, $1,500 (70% win rate)
0xc2e5...b3a5 — Outcome 40250089, $1,379 (66% win rate)
0x1a2f...647a — Outcome 40250089, $1,285 (67% win rate)
0x4bb2...a656 — Outcome 40250089, $1,235 (72% win rate)
0x1bd0...7434 — Outcome 40250089, $1,158
0xc4b2...9a9b — Outcome 40250089, $1,003 (85% win rate)

Related Theses

Europeans flop, underdogs advance

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Established nations reach knockouts

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World Cup shootouts stay under six

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Iraq and Saudi advance

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Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ResolvedWorld Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages$11,840 tracked4 signalsFIFA World CupSports2026 FIFA World CupSoccerTeam PropsTournament Futures

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.