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Event

World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages

132 signals across 34 markets · $501,011 tracked · resolves Jun 28, 2026

This event tracks whether the USA will advance to the knockout stages of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome on Polymarket, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money activity, including a recent quiet-market whale bet.

Markets (34)

  1. Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3 signals · $64,980 tracked
  2. Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?12 signals · $50,521 tracked
  3. Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?4 signals · $39,589 tracked
  4. Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?9 signals · $38,811 tracked
  5. Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?6 signals · $30,465 tracked
  6. Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?9 signals · $28,284 tracked
  7. Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?5 signals · $23,920 tracked
  8. Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?4 signals · $20,874 tracked
  9. Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?8 signals · $19,279 tracked
  10. Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?5 signals · $19,252 tracked
  11. Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?7 signals · $17,731 tracked
  12. Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?7 signals · $17,533 tracked
  13. Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?5 signals · $13,916 tracked
  14. Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?5 signals · $13,742 tracked
  15. Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?4 signals · $11,840 tracked
  16. Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?4 signals · $11,701 tracked
  17. Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3 signals · $8,541 tracked
  18. Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?4 signals · $8,101 tracked
  19. Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2 signals · $7,977 tracked
  20. Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2 signals · $6,917 tracked
  21. Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2 signals · $6,047 tracked
  22. Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2 signals · $5,430 tracked
  23. Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2 signals · $4,968 tracked
  24. Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3 signals · $4,191 tracked
  25. Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2 signals · $3,984 tracked
  26. Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2 signals · $3,902 tracked
  27. Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2 signals · $3,604 tracked
  28. Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2 signals · $3,307 tracked
  29. Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1 signal · $2,691 tracked
  30. Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2 signals · $2,531 tracked
  31. Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1 signal · $2,434 tracked
  32. Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1 signal · $1,746 tracked
  33. Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1 signal · $1,131 tracked
  34. Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1 signal · $1,072 tracked

Top trades across all markets

  1. 6-wallet linked contrarian

    High composite alert from a linked-wallet cluster making an outsized No bet on a quiet market, with the wallet also showing positive lifetime P&L and related cross-market activity.

    $4,613Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 13.5
  2. Coordinated No surge

    Three wallets bought Ecuador No in a coordinated move that drove the price sharply higher, led by a profitable serial cross-market trader.

    $4,391Score: 12.6
  3. Profitable serial sports bettor

    A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor is making a net pro-Scotland position with meaningful size on a relatively thin World Cup market.

    $16,083Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 12.3
  4. Sharp World Cup contrarian

    Sharp profitable wallet with an 85% track record is buying Norway No at 14¢ as part of a broader cross-market World Cup thesis.

    $3,360Wallet win rate: 51%Score: 11.0
  5. Serial World Cup thesis bettor

    A high-volume serial cross-market bettor put $10k on No while building a $76k World Cup advancement thesis across four related markets, though their lifetime P&L is negative.

    $10,000Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 11.0
  6. 6-wallet funded World Cup fade

    A linked 6-wallet cluster with prior activity is fading Qatar, with this wallet making a nearly $6k No buy that dwarfs recent market volume.

    $5,964Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 10.8
  7. 6-wallet funded cluster

    Six linked wallets from the same funder are building a coordinated No position across related World Cup markets, with this profitable high-volume wallet joining at 79¢.

    $1,295Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 10.6
  8. Known funded cluster buying YES

    A known 6-wallet funded cluster is making a large Yes buy in a very quiet Qatar World Cup market, with the trade dwarfing recent volume.

    $3,873Wallet win rate: 60%Score: 10.6
  9. 80% winner fades Scotland

    Proven sharp wallet with an 80% long-run win rate and $628k profit is buying Scotland No amid strong cross-market activity and a major price move.

    $1,051Wallet win rate: 81%Score: 10.0
  10. Elite World Cup sharp

    Elite sports bettor with an 87% win rate and $7.5M lifetime profit is buying Qatar Yes as part of a broader World Cup positioning pattern.

    $1,639Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 10.0

Top wallets in this event

  1. 0xd84949…6ac7$73,780 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 75% wins
  2. 0x5fd86d…ce32$29,697 · 7 markets · 12 alerts · 89% wins
  3. 0x4da7d5…7abd$29,603 · 5 markets · 9 alerts · 60% wins
  4. 0xe52c0a…6924$27,297 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 89% wins
  5. 0x837208…5223$25,400 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 80% wins
  6. 0x13414a…0853$20,240 · 5 markets · 6 alerts · 85% wins
  7. 0x381b92…4d74$19,823 · 5 markets · 6 alerts · 51% wins
  8. 0xb3cfe7…0ebd$18,683 · 6 markets · 9 alerts · 81% wins
  9. 0xe72bb5…b0a0$18,670 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 44% wins
  10. 0x9770ca…0ff5$16,083 · 1 market · 1 alert · 63% wins

More on this event

Cross-market thesis
All four miss knockouts

FAQs

What are the USA World Cup knockout-stage odds?

The odds reflect Polymarket traders' current pricing on whether the USA will advance from the group stage to the 2026 World Cup knockout rounds. PolySpotter tracks the market and highlights notable smart money moves behind those odds.

What is the prediction market for USA to advance?

This Polymarket event centers on a Yes/No market: whether the United States reaches the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The market resolves Yes if the USA advances and No if they are mathematically eliminated.

Is smart money betting on USA to advance?

PolySpotter has tracked $4,978 in smart money across this event, with one recent signal flagged as a quiet-market whale bet. That suggests a notable trader entered the market despite relatively low public activity.

When does the USA knockout-stage market resolve?

The market is expected to resolve once the USA either advances to the knockout stage or is mathematically eliminated, with the event listed to resolve by June 28, 2026.