Part of: World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,252.
Categories: FIFA World Cup, Sports, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Soccer, Team Props, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
Sharp World Cup contrarian
Sharp profitable wallet with an 85% track record is buying Norway No at 14¢ as part of a broader cross-market World Cup thesis.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $169k lifetime.
- They have put $18.5k across 4 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $3.4k No buy was about 60% of recent daily volume, a meaningful bet in a quiet market.
$3,360 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
New World Cup whale
A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly making large World Cup futures bets, including a $3.6k Yes buy that dominated recent Norway volume.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already made 15 notable large bets totaling $41k.
- The $3.6k Norway Yes buy was about 2.7x the market’s recent daily volume.
- The same wallet has spread $9.4k across 3 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader tournament thesis.
$3,642 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Known cluster fades Norway
High-severity linked-wallet signal from a known 6-wallet funded cluster taking a contrarian No position on Norway, with related World Cup positioning across three markets.
- A known six-wallet funded cluster is behind this trade, making it more notable than a single isolated bet.
- The group has $7.6k positioned across 3 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 15¢ on No implies they see Norway’s 84% advance odds as too high.
$2,424 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
Elite sports whale buying Yes
Elite wallet with an 86% long-term win record and $7.5M profit bought a large Yes position on a thin Norway qualification market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $7.5M lifetime.
- They put $6.2K on Yes at 84¢, a large bet relative to this quiet market’s recent volume.
- This is a serial cross-market trader with activity across 307 events and nearly $4.8M tracked volume.
$6,213 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
New wallet attacking thin market
A 23-day-old repeat large bettor bought $3.6k of Norway Yes on an extremely quiet market, moving in at prices below current odds despite limited wallet history.
- A 23-day-old wallet put $3.6k on Yes, over 10x this market’s 24h volume.
- The bettor has now made $5.7k of flagged World Cup positions across 3 related markets.
- One fill came at 74¢ and the market is already around 82¢, suggesting early price impact.
$3,613 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%
Top Holders
- 0x4da7...7abd — Outcome 20169730, $16,200 (60% win rate)
- 0x15a6...bf5d — Outcome 20169730, $6,666 (47% win rate)
- 0x5213...6a35 — Outcome 20169730, $6,026 (74% win rate)
- 0x087d...b872 — Outcome 20169730, $5,000 (71% win rate)
- 0xeaac...d71d — Outcome 20169730, $2,716 (82% win rate)
- 0x72cb...341f — Outcome 20169730, $912
- 0x3465...7082 — Outcome 20169730, $800
- 0x373a...f4c1 — Outcome 20169730, $573 (61% win rate)
- 0xd42e...e152 — Outcome 20169730, $503
- 0x8328...feb3 — Outcome 20169730, $333
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