Part of: UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)
This Polymarket market tracks who will officially win the UFC Fight Night women's strawweight prelim between Alice Ardelean and Polyana Viana. The page shows the current prediction market odds plus PolySpotter smart money activity, including $1,411 tracked across 1 signal. The market is scheduled to resolve on May 17, 2026, based on the official fight result, with a 50-50 resolution if the bout is a draw, no contest, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Alice Ardelean" if Alice Ardelean is officially declared the winner of the fight against Polyana Viana at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026. It will resolve to "Polyana Viana" if Polyana Viana is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $189,070.
Categories: Sports, UFC, Games
Notable Trades
Profitable serial sports bettor
Profitable high-volume bettor bought Alice Ardelean before a sharp move to 100%, alongside a major volume spike and price impact.
- This bettor has a large track record: 71% wins across 1,180 resolved bets and +$103k lifetime profit.
- They bought Alice Ardelean at 88¢ before the market moved to 100¢.
- The market saw an 846x volume spike and a 25-point price jump in the same direction.
$1,754 on Alice Ardelean | Wallet win rate: 71%
Elite UFC sharp
Elite profitable sports bettor bought Alice Ardelean at 86¢ ahead of a major volume spike and a move to near-certain pricing.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $901K lifetime.
- They have traded 86 events and over $1.18M, suggesting a repeat sports edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Alice moved from 86¢ to 100¢ after the buy, alongside an 846x volume spike.
$2,214 on Alice Ardelean | Wallet win rate: 81%
93% win-rate UFC bettor
Sharp UFC bettor with a 93% historical win rate bought Alice Ardelean at 88¢ amid a huge pre-event volume spike and a 25-point price move to 100%.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $38K lifetime.
- They bought Alice Ardelean at 88¢ before the market moved to 100¢.
- The market saw an 846x volume spike and a 25-point move in Alice’s favor.
$2,000 on Alice Ardelean | Wallet win rate: 93%
UFC line-steam buyer
A major pre-fight volume surge and rapid price move pushed Alice Ardelean from a 65¢ entry to 92¢, suggesting strong market-wide conviction despite the wallet’s modest track record.
- Huge pre-fight money hit this market, with volume spiking over 3,500x its normal pace.
- Alice Ardelean jumped from this buyer’s 65¢ entry to 92¢, a 27-point move in roughly a day.
- The bettor is profitable lifetime, up about $24k across $883k traded, but this is mainly a market-momentum signal.
$1,411 on Alice Ardelean | Wallet win rate: 53%
UFC one-sided whale surge
A large one-sided UFC cluster bought $173k of Alice Ardelean into thin liquidity, triggering a major pre-fight volume spike and rapid price move.
- Three wallets bought $173k of Alice Ardelean, with one wallet accounting for about $155k of the position.
- This was a 1136x volume spike versus the market’s normal activity and much larger than the $7.5k visible liquidity.
- Alice’s price jumped 17 percentage points in 5 minutes, suggesting the cluster materially moved the market.
$173,420 on Alice Ardelean
94% winner backs underdog
A highly profitable sports bettor with a 94% resolved win rate bought Polyana Viana at 37¢ amid a sharp pre-fight volume spike.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $349K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market sports trader with $521K tracked across 25 events.
- Entry at 37¢ backs the underdog despite heavy pre-fight volume moving through the market.
$3,893 on Polyana Viana | Wallet win rate: 94%
Elite bettor backing underdog
Elite profitable sports bettor with an 89% resolved win rate and $2.4M lifetime profit bought Polyana Viana at 35¢ amid a sharp pre-fight volume spike.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $2.4M lifetime.
- They are a major serial sports trader, with $4.2M deployed across 884 markets.
- Entry at 35¢ backs the underdog despite the market currently pricing Polyana around 36%.
$1,643 on Polyana Viana | Wallet win rate: 89%
94% winner backs favorite
Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has an exceptional 94% resolved win rate and $209k lifetime profit.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $209k lifetime.
- They bought $2.7k of Alice Ardelean at 64¢, backing the current favorite with a strong track record.
- Entry at 64¢ implies they still see value despite the market already pricing Ardelean as likely to win.
$2,736 on Alice Ardelean | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0xee00...cea1 — Alice Ardelean, $248,759 (62% win rate)
- 0x160d...5295 — Alice Ardelean, $205,017 (59% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — Polyana Viana, $190,548 (62% win rate)
- 0xfbf3...b218 — Polyana Viana, $187,756 (43% win rate)
- 0xa49b...4c40 — Alice Ardelean, $130,039 (90% win rate)
- 0x12ec...41ae — Polyana Viana, $86,408 (67% win rate)
- 0x39d3...9ef0 — Polyana Viana, $72,719 (44% win rate)
- 0x1136...0c2e — Alice Ardelean, $47,554 (59% win rate)
- 0x23c8...f293 — Polyana Viana, $45,834 (44% win rate)
- 0xba8c...e77d — Alice Ardelean, $42,000 (90% win rate)
