Part of: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

This prediction market asks whether 2026 will be ranked the second-hottest year on record based on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. It resolves when the official temperature ranking data for 2026 becomes available, with resolution expected after the end of 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,908 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,908.

Categories: Science, Culture, Global Temp, Weather, Climate & Science, Weather & Science

Notable Trades

Profitable serial specialist

Proven profitable cross-market trader with a 75% long-run win rate is adding a ~$2.9k Yes position in a moderately quiet climate market.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 1,032 resolved trades and is up $3.36M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.37M placed across 125 markets in 82 events.
  • Entry at 53¢ suggests they see Yes as underpriced despite the market already sitting near even odds.

$2,908 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $108,364
  2. 0xf2f6...5817 Yes, $90,607 (75% win rate)
  3. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $6,000 (48% win rate)
  4. 0x4a2b...af20 Yes, $6,000 (38% win rate)
  5. 0x3069...f8ef Yes, $3,500 (70% win rate)
  6. 0x0845...6b6f Yes, $2,240 (68% win rate)
  7. 0x54b5...4b31 Yes, $2,111 (45% win rate)
  8. 0x562b...dc09 No, $2,055 (95% win rate)
  9. 0x92e5...efee Yes, $1,953 (55% win rate)
  10. 0xbad2...5296 Yes, $1,747 (53% win rate)

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Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

231dWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?$2,908 tracked1 signalScienceCultureGlobal TempWeatherClimate & ScienceWeather & Science
Yes
56¢
No
44¢

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
60¢
55¢
50¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

2d ago

$2,908 on Yes at 53¢

53¢56¢3¢

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