Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2 signals across 2 markets · $12,149 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether 2026 will rank as the hottest year on record based on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Traders are pricing the climate outcome across the event, with PolySpotter currently tracking $9,242 in smart money activity and a recent signal from a profitable new wallet buying Yes.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable serial specialist
Proven profitable cross-market trader with a 75% long-run win rate is adding a ~$2.9k Yes position in a moderately quiet climate market.
$2,908Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 10.0 - Profitable new wallet buying Yes
A 2-day-old wallet with repeat large bets and early $65k profit just put $9.2k into Yes on a climate market, including fresh size at 34¢ in a trade bigger than the market’s prior 24h volume.
$9,242Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 7.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x94c4fe…43ca$9,242 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
- 0xf2f6af…5817$2,908 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds that 2026 will be the hottest year on record?
The odds come from live Polymarket trading in the event's market on whether 2026 becomes the hottest year on record. PolySpotter tracks those market prices alongside smart money activity so you can see both the current implied probability and who is moving the market.
What is the smart money doing on this 2026 hottest year market?
PolySpotter has tracked $9,242 in smart money activity across this event. The latest alert shows a profitable new wallet buying Yes, suggesting at least one successful trader is positioning for 2026 to set a new heat record.
How will this Polymarket climate market resolve?
The market resolves based on the numerical rank of 2026 in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, with years ranked from hottest to coolest. If 2026 ties another year, it resolves according to the tied year's rank.
When does the 2026 hottest year market resolve?
The event is listed with a resolution date of December 31, 2026, but the description says it will resolve once the required temperature data becomes available.