Will France win on 2026-06-30?

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $1,278,429.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Whale caught 86¢ move

A large repeat bettor bought $92k of Yes at 86¢ ahead of a sharp move to 98¢, alongside a 107x volume spike and cross-market positioning.

This bettor put $92k on Yes at 86¢ before the market jumped to 98¢.
The same wallet has $112k positioned across 3 related event markets.
Market volume spiked 107x and Yes is up 21 points in the last day.

$92,157 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%

New wallet caught 11-point move

A brand-new repeat bettor bought France at 87¢ before a major volume spike and move to 98¢, though the current price is likely too high to chase.

A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly taking large shots, with $6,000 flagged across 5 positions.
This buy at 87¢ came before France moved to 98¢ amid a 106x volume spike.
The price has already run to 98¢, so entries above 95¢ offer limited upside.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

78% winner serial trader

Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought France Yes despite the market being very liquid, making the wallet track record the main signal.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $477K lifetime.
They are a seasoned cross-market trader across 169 events with nearly $3M invested.
Entry at 77¢ suggests they still see value in France despite the market already pricing them as a strong favorite.

$1,350 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

27-wallet sharp No cluster

A large 27-wallet cluster, including linked wallets and several proven sharp bettors, is positioning on France not winning despite France trading as a heavy favorite.

27 wallets put $422K on France not winning, with linked funding behind part of the cluster.
Several bettors have strong records, including one who has won 97% over 71 resolved positions and another at 88% over 17.
The move came with a 98x volume spike, suggesting heavy coordinated positioning against the 86¢ favorite.

$422,343 on No

85% winner buying favorite

Sharp profitable wallet with an 85% resolved win rate bought France at 72¢ before the market moved to 86¢, with supporting cross-market history and volume spike.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $48.9K lifetime.
They bought France at 72¢ before the market moved to 86¢.
This wallet has traded 31 related events with the same 85% win rate.

$9,707 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Sharp serial sports winner

Sharp 81% lifetime winner with strong profitability bought France at 73¢ before the market moved to 86¢ amid a major volume spike.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved bets and is up $82k lifetime.
They have traded across 170 events with the same 81% win rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
France moved from their 73¢ entry to 86¢, with market volume nearly 50x above normal.

$3,729 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Proven sports sharp buying Yes

A highly profitable sports bettor with a 78% win rate and $1.39M lifetime profit is effectively buying France Yes amid a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up $1.39M lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 308 events with $3.15M total wagered.
Selling No at 28¢ is the same as buying France Yes at 72¢, despite the market drifting down 6 points today.

$5,459 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Sharp serial sports bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% resolved-bet record and extensive cross-market history bought France Yes at 78¢.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved bets and is up $26.7K lifetime.
They have traded across 43 events and 47 markets, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
Entry at 78¢ implies a confident favorite bet despite a deep, liquid market.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

87% winner backs favorite

Sharp sports bettor with an 87% record and strong cross-market history bought France Yes amid a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $52K lifetime.
They are a proven cross-market sports trader across 29 events and 51 markets.
Market volume spiked 193x before the game, suggesting broader money is moving too.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

New wallet 8-for-8

A 3-day-old wallet with an 8-for-8 resolved record and early profit is making another $5k Yes bet amid a major pre-event volume surge.

This new bettor has gone 8-for-8 so far and is up $576 on $21.9k invested.
The wallet is only 3 days old but has already had 6 large-bet alerts totaling $18.9k.
Market volume is spiking 88x above normal, suggesting heavy pre-game positioning.

$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

0x9ee8...89de — Outcome 11024516, $2,313,975 (73% win rate)
0xf031...c80c — Outcome 11024516, $1,532,856 (91% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 11024516, $723,425
0xc41d...74fd — Outcome 11024516, $658,600 (97% win rate)
0x224a...a3d5 — Outcome 11024516, $403,421 (62% win rate)
0xb61b...8a06 — Outcome 11024516, $350,000 (87% win rate)
0x0c78...77f1 — Outcome 11024516, $175,311 (80% win rate)
0xd776...ffeb — Outcome 11024516, $112,000 (46% win rate)
0x9032...8717 — Outcome 11024516, $100,000 (47% win rate)
0x8c40...80df — Outcome 11024516, $91,260 (100% win rate)

Related Theses

Favorites advance, Spain Netherlands miss

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

Will France win on 2026-06-30?

ResolvedFrance vs. Sweden$1,278,429 tracked50 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 30, 2026 If France wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “Yes”