Part of: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
This Polymarket-style prediction market covers the League of Legends LPL Group Nirvana BO3 match between ThunderTalk Gaming and EDward Gaming, scheduled for May 16. PolySpotter tracks live market odds and has flagged $5,339 in smart money activity, including signals from sharp esports wallets backing the underdog. The market resolves on May 16, 2026, based on which team wins the match, unless it is canceled, tied, or delayed beyond the stated rules.
This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for May 16 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against EDward Gaming. This market will resolve to "EDward Gaming" if EDward Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
18 smart money signals detected, totaling $45,716.
Categories: Esports, league of legends, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
Profitable serial esports bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought ThunderTalk Gaming at 39%, and the market has already moved to 46% in their direction.
- This bettor has won 72% of 748 resolved bets and is up $429k lifetime.
- They have traded across 103 events and 179 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- They bought ThunderTalk at 39¢ before the price moved to 46¢.
$1,106 on ThunderTalk Gaming | Wallet win rate: 72%
Sharp bettors back underdog
Four-wallet EDward Gaming flow is backed by two highly profitable bettors, including a 94% winner up $204k and an 89% winner up $51k, making this a strong copy-trade candidate despite one leg being profit-taking.
- A bettor who wins 94% of resolved trades is buying EDward Gaming and is up $204k lifetime.
- Another wallet in the same direction wins 89% of bets and is up $51k across 27 resolved positions.
- Four wallets put $6.4k on EDward Gaming at 42¢, including one sell of ThunderTalk that converts to the same side.
$6,389 on EDward Gaming
93% winner backing favorite
Surfaced despite modest composite score because the wallet has a strong 28/30 resolved record and positive lifetime P&L, making this EDward Gaming buy copy-worthy.
- This bettor has won 28 of 30 resolved bets and is up $71K lifetime.
- They put $4.6K on EDward Gaming at 71¢ in a liquid esports market.
- Entry at 71¢ suggests they still see value despite EDward Gaming already being favored.
$4,575 on EDward Gaming | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a large resolved sample is buying the 29¢ underdog despite the market drifting against ThunderTalk.
- This bettor has won 70% of 773 resolved bets and is up about $932K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 432 events with over $4M tracked in this pattern.
- Entry at 29¢ backs the underdog after a 6-point daily drop, suggesting they see value against the current move.
$1,769 on ThunderTalk Gaming | Wallet win rate: 70%
95% win-rate esports sharp
A highly proven esports bettor with a 95% resolved win rate bought ThunderTalk at 29¢ amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved bets and is up $262.7K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 555 events with the same 95% hit rate.
- ThunderTalk was bought at 29¢ while market volume spiked 45x before the match.
$1,195 on ThunderTalk Gaming | Wallet win rate: 95%
Profitable linked esports wallet
High composite score from a profitable new wallet tied to a recurring 6-wallet funded cluster buying EDward Gaming at 71¢.
- This new wallet is 4-for-4 on resolved bets and is up $795 so far.
- It is part of a 6-wallet funded cluster that has appeared in prior runs.
- The bettor bought EDward Gaming at 71¢, backing the favorite after a 6-point daily dip.
$1,600 on EDward Gaming | Wallet win rate: 100%
Elite esports sharp
Elite profitable bettor with an 87% long-term win rate and $6.1M profit bought EDward Gaming in a liquid LoL market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $6.1M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 246 events with $3.35M tracked in similar activity.
- They put $5.4K on EDward Gaming at 71¢, adding a strong sharp-wallet signal despite the market being liquid.
$5,387 on EDward Gaming | Wallet win rate: 87%
Profitable serial esports bettor
Serial cross-market esports bettor with a strong 74% record and nearly $50k profit is buying the 30¢ underdog.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up about $50k lifetime.
- They have traded across 31 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 30¢ backs the underdog, implying they see meaningful upside versus the market’s 70% EDward Gaming price.
$1,686 on ThunderTalk Gaming | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable serial esports bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with 243 resolved trades is backing EDward Gaming at 70¢, though the trade size is modest in a liquid market.
- This bettor is up $52K lifetime across 243 resolved trades.
- They have traded 36 related events and win 63% of resolved bets.
- Entry at 70¢ backs the favorite despite a 5-point price drop over the past day.
$1,060 on EDward Gaming | Wallet win rate: 63%
87% winner buying favorite
Sharp esports bettor with an 87% long-run win rate and $6.1M profit is buying EDward Gaming at 70¢.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $6.1M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.3M tracked across 245 events.
- A $4,954 buy at 70¢ signals fresh conviction on EDward Gaming despite an already liquid market.
$4,954 on EDward Gaming | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0x1136...0c2e — EDward Gaming, $30,079 (68% win rate)
- 0x1341...0853 — EDward Gaming, $23,136 (87% win rate)
- 0x2307...3934 — ThunderTalk Gaming, $20,000 (54% win rate)
- 0x74a8...df59 — ThunderTalk Gaming, $16,352 (46% win rate)
- 0xc44f...d49f — ThunderTalk Gaming, $13,381 (70% win rate)
- 0x21d0...42b1 — EDward Gaming, $9,592 (93% win rate)
- 0xef21...3dc9 — ThunderTalk Gaming, $9,429 (95% win rate)
- 0x6277...5a3f — ThunderTalk Gaming, $9,199 (80% win rate)
- 0xdb83...1e50 — EDward Gaming, $9,061 (68% win rate)
- 0xda3a...381f — EDward Gaming, $9,041 (54% win rate)
Related Theses
HANJIN BRION sweeps series
Covers 3 related markets
T1 will sweep Gen.G
Covers 3 related markets
