Part of: National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca

National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $55,138.

Notable Trades

96% winner exits Fonseca

An exceptionally profitable serial trader sold a large Joao Fonseca position, implying a binary-equivalent buy on Casper Ruud, though the exit may reflect profit-taking.

This bettor has won 96% of 180 resolved positions and earned over $7 million.
The $21,943 sale of Fonseca at 75¢ implies buying Casper Ruud around 25¢.
An 81x volume spike adds context, but the prior Fonseca position means this may be profit-taking rather than a fresh bet.

$21,943 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 90%

Proven sharp backs Fonseca

A highly profitable, serial cross-market bettor with 2,395 resolved trades and an 18-point edge bought $6,080 of Joao Fonseca amid an 81x volume spike.

This bettor wins 81% of 2,395 resolved trades and is up $5.7 million.
They placed a $6,080 buy on Joao Fonseca at 76¢, reinforcing the market favorite.
Trading volume surged to 81 times its historical average, suggesting unusually strong activity around the match.

$6,080 on Joao Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable sharp joins Fonseca cluster

A proven high-volume bettor with an 81% win rate and $5.7M profit joined two other wallets in a $15,000 Joao Fonseca push that coincided with a 28-point price rise.

This bettor wins 81% of trades and is up $5.7 million across nearly 2,400 resolved bets.
Three wallets put $15,060 behind Joao Fonseca, while his price surged 28 percentage points to 76%.
The strongest wallet appears to be opening or adding to a fresh Fonseca position rather than taking routine profits.

$15,060 on Joao Fonseca

Sharp serial bettor buys Ruud

A highly profitable serial bettor with a 79% win rate and substantial edge bought Casper Ruud at 43%, well below the current 48% price.

This bettor wins 79% of 276 resolved positions and is up $721,904.
They bought Casper Ruud at 43%, while the market has moved to 48%.
The $1,780 position reflects fresh conviction despite a liquid, heavily traded market.

$1,780 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 78%

90% winner scaling into Ruud

A highly profitable serial trader with a 90% win rate is adding to an existing Casper Ruud position at 46¢.

This bettor has won 90% of 144 resolved trades and is up $155,606.
They are adding $3,563 to an existing Ruud position at 46¢, signaling increased conviction.
The wallet has traded across 94 markets and 90 events, providing a substantial record beyond this single bet.

$3,563 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 90%

Serial sharp adding to Ruud

A highly profitable serial sports trader with an 80% win rate and meaningful edge is adding $3,623 to an existing Casper Ruud position at 47%.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $606,842 across 1,059 bets.
The wallet has traded 274 markets across 265 events, indicating extensive experience rather than a one-off wager.
This is an additional $3,623 buy into Casper Ruud at 47%, alongside an existing $7,709 position.

$3,623 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 80%

Elite bettor adds to Fonseca

A highly proven bettor with a 92% win rate and substantial edge is adding to an existing Joao Fonseca position at 54%.

This bettor wins 92% of 1,175 resolved positions and is up $177,107 lifetime.
They are adding $1,500 to an existing Joao Fonseca position at 54%, signaling increased conviction.
The wallet has traded across 87 events and 97 markets, making this more than an isolated bet.

$1,500 on Joao Fonseca | Wallet win rate: 93%

Proven serial bettor backs Ruud

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate and 25-point performance gap over average winning entry prices is backing Casper Ruud at 46¢.

This bettor has won 116 of 157 resolved trades, a 74% win rate, and is up $106,672.
Their wins came at an average entry price of 49%, indicating results well above the implied odds.
They are a serial trader across 141 events, with this $1,589 Ruud position priced at 46¢.

$1,589 on Casper Ruud | Wallet win rate: 74%

Top Holders

0x45e4...7e20 — Outcome 54137840, $23,747 (52% win rate)
0x4be1...aa70 — Outcome 54137840, $20,026 (63% win rate)
0xa804...2a75 — Outcome 54137840, $15,480 (64% win rate)
0xf3a1...bf4b — Outcome 54137840, $11,538 (98% win rate)
0x54ba...04e4 — Outcome 54137840, $10,680 (78% win rate)
0x86b1...c094 — Outcome 54137840, $10,441 (32% win rate)
0xe585...09ef — Outcome 54137840, $10,273 (79% win rate)
0x0a63...fc03 — Outcome 54137840, $9,000 (84% win rate)
0x5901...63a2 — Outcome 54137840, $7,745 (90% win rate)
0x33c9...6f9a — Outcome 54137840, $7,709 (80% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 4 related markets

Canada Qatar first-half shootout

Covers 5 related markets

Germany wins high-scoring rout

Covers 4 related markets

France Northern Ireland goals galore

Covers 3 related markets

USA Australia goalfest starts early

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca

ResolvedNational Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca$55,138 tracked8 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Joao Fonseca in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Joao Fonseca. This market will resolve to 'Joao Fonseca' if Joao Fonseca advances against Casper Ruud. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Joao Fonseca”

82¢

67¢

52¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction