Part of: US military action against Cuba by...?
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil will be announced or credibly reported by December 31, 2026 ET. PolySpotter is tracking $91,959 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent No flows from a six-wallet cluster and new-wallet buying on both sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
23 smart money signals detected, totaling $417,530.
Categories: Geopolitics, Venezuela, Cuba, Politics
Notable Trades
Repeat new whale buys NO
A repeat-flagged new wallet put $42.5k into the No side during a massive volume spike, suggesting a high-conviction fade of the strike scenario despite no resolved track record yet.
- A new repeat bettor put $42.5k behind No in five quick trades.
- This wallet has now been flagged 11 times for large bets, totaling about $53k.
- Market volume is surging 437x above its historical average, adding weight to the move.
$42,469 on No
New whale buying No
A repeat-flagged new wallet put roughly $91k through the No side during a major volume spike, but the round-trip trade means the clean copy signal is the net No accumulation around 63¢.
- A new repeat-flagged wallet put over $90k through this market, with most trades buying No at 63¢.
- The market saw a 437x volume spike, suggesting sudden attention on a normally quieter geopolitical contract.
- This appears to be fresh No conviction after the wallet closed a prior Yes position around the current price.
$91,224 on No
New whale buying No
New repeat whale is effectively buying No with $34k after already trading this market, alongside a massive market-wide volume spike.
- A new repeat bettor put $34k behind No by selling Yes at 37¢.
- This wallet has now triggered large-bet alerts 7 times, suggesting sustained conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Market volume is surging at over 1,200x its historical pace, with this trade leaning against a US strike outcome.
$33,999 on No
New whale flips to NO
A new wallet made a concentrated $58k BUY No position while market volume spiked over 1,200x, suggesting fresh conviction on a geopolitical market.
- A new wallet bought nearly $58k of No in four rapid trades at 63¢.
- Market activity spiked 1,212x versus its historical average, suggesting unusual attention.
- The wallet previously closed a $14k Yes position and has now flipped to No.
$57,960 on No
New wallet joins Yes flow
A repeat-flagged new wallet is buying Yes alongside one-sided flow and a major volume spike, suggesting coordinated conviction despite no resolved track record.
- A new wallet put $3.9K on Yes and has now been flagged 5 times for large bets.
- Three wallets are all buying the same side, totaling about $9K in Yes buys.
- Market volume spiked 278x versus its historical average, suggesting fresh attention on this outcome.
$3,922 on Yes
New wallet in Yes surge
A repeat-flagged new wallet joined a one-sided Yes push during a major volume spike, making this a notable geopolitical event-flow trade despite no resolved track record.
- A new wallet has now been flagged 5 times for large bets, with $16.7K total in similar activity.
- Three wallets are all betting Yes, totaling $9.0K in the same direction.
- Market volume spiked 278x versus its usual pace, suggesting fresh event-driven attention.
$3,339 on Yes
Repeat new whale buying Yes
A repeat new-wallet whale is adding to Yes amid a massive volume spike on a geopolitically plausible market.
- A new wallet has repeatedly been flagged for large bets, with $72k+ in notable trades so far.
- This wallet has put over $130k into Yes around 37¢, showing concentrated conviction.
- Market volume is running 462x above its historical average, suggesting broader sudden attention.
$8,020 on Yes
Repeat new-wallet whale
High-score alert driven by a repeat new-wallet whale buying $18.2K of Yes alongside a major volume spike and one-sided flow from other wallets.
- A fresh wallet is repeatedly sizing into Yes, with $56.8K flagged across 28 large-bet alerts.
- This alert adds $18.2K at 37¢, while 3 wallets bought the same side for $23.4K total.
- Market volume is 574x its normal pace, suggesting a broader wave of positioning into Yes.
$18,195 on Yes
New wallets piling into Yes
A repeat new wallet is joining a broader one-sided Yes push amid a major volume spike on a geopolitical market.
- Three wallets have bought the same side, totaling $23.4K in Yes exposure.
- This new wallet has been flagged 4 times, with $7.1K in recent large bets.
- Market volume is running far above normal, suggesting a coordinated shift in attention toward Yes.
$1,764 on Yes
New whale chasing spike
New repeat-flagged wallet is aggressively buying Yes amid a massive volume spike, but there is no resolved track record yet.
- A new wallet put $18.3K into Yes in nine rapid buys at 37¢.
- This wallet has been repeatedly flagged, with $32.5K in recent large bets despite no resolved history.
- Market activity is exploding, with volume running about 685x its historical average.
$18,315 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xb8e3...aaf2 — No, $61,721 (100% win rate)
- 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $43,343 (62% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Yes, $36,169 (36% win rate)
- 0x1f30...c65a — Yes, $15,939
- 0x524c...6b4f — No, $15,367
- 0x4337...8882 — No, $14,579 (76% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — No, $12,171 (75% win rate)
- 0x21c7...191a — Yes, $8,600 (62% win rate)
- 0x3248...f20b — No, $8,386
- 0xa87a...5403 — No, $7,505
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