Part of: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

This prediction market asks whether the Super Heavy booster for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 will explode at any point from fueling through 60 minutes after landing contact. It resolves by December 31, 2026, based on whether a violent, catastrophic event destroys all or part of the booster, including any planned termination event. PolySpotter is tracking $2,109 in smart money across 2 signals, with recent high-win-rate traders buying both Yes and No.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,109.

Categories: SpaceX, Culture, Science, Big Tech, Elon Musk, Tech

Notable Trades

90% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 90% record and positive P&L effectively bought Yes despite only a modest single win-rate signal.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $1.2K lifetime.
  • They effectively bought Yes at 75¢, matching the market’s current high-confidence pricing.
  • The bet goes against recent momentum after Yes fell 21 points this week.

$1,009 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

90% winner buying No

Surface due to a proven profitable wallet with a 90% record buying No despite the alert's modest composite score.

  • This bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved bets and is up $1,239 lifetime.
  • They bought No at 28¢ while the market has been moving down, with Yes falling 21 points this week.
  • Entry at 28¢ implies a roughly 3.6x payout if the booster does not explode.

$1,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0540...8913 — Outcome 21913540, $28,382 (75% win rate)
  2. 0xc381...a661 — Outcome 21913540, $6,862 (83% win rate)
  3. 0x2c55...dbb9 — Outcome 21913540, $5,433 (57% win rate)
  4. 0x01e3...7e7a — Outcome 21913540, $4,258
  5. 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 21913540, $2,809
  6. 0xff17...926d — Outcome 21913540, $1,852
  7. 0xc156...9a16 — Outcome 21913540, $1,022
  8. 0x8454...331a — Outcome 21913540, $1,000 (91% win rate)
  9. 0xf57a...72a5 — Outcome 21913540, $900
  10. 0x26bb...8337 — Outcome 21913540, $823

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

164dSpaceX Starship Flight Test 12$2,109 tracked2 signalsSpaceXCultureScienceBig TechElon MuskTech

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Notable Trades

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

57d ago

$1,009 on Yes at 75¢

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

57d ago

$1,100 on No at 28¢