Part of: Kansas Senate Election Winner

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether the Democratic nominee will win the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate election, including any runoff. Current market odds are not included in the supplied data; PolySpotter tracks $77,896 in smart-money activity and one signal, with a recent alert reporting a position added to No.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $89,709.

Categories: Kansas Midterm, Senate Elections, Midterms, Elections, US Election, Politics, Key Senate Races

Notable Trades

Proven sharp buying No

A highly profitable bettor with thousands of resolved positions and a strong reported edge has opened a $3,000 position on No.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,539 resolved positions and is up $6.5 million.
  • They put nearly $3,000 on No at 49¢, despite the market’s recent upward momentum for Yes.

$1,181 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable bettor with 9,550 resolved trades and extensive cross-market activity is making a fresh $3,374 bet on No.

  • This bettor is up $1.5M across 9,550 resolved trades, with a 75% win rate.
  • They placed a fresh $3,374 bet on No and have traded across 1,257 events.
  • No is available near their 62¢ entry, with a relatively tight 2¢ spread.

$1,085 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven sharp buying No

A highly profitable bettor with thousands of resolved positions and a strong reported edge has opened a $3,000 position on No.

  • This bettor has won 88% of 3,539 resolved positions and is up $6.5 million.
  • They put nearly $3,000 on No at 49¢, despite the market’s recent upward momentum for Yes.

$2,999 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Proven serial trader with 92% wins

A highly profitable serial trader with 1,766 resolved positions bought No at 47¢, making this a notable trade despite modest sizing in a liquid market.

  • This bettor has won 92% of 1,766 resolved positions and is up over $9.1 million.
  • A prolific cross-market trader active across 438 events bought No at 47¢.
  • The market is liquid, and the trade is a modest $1,175 position rather than a large price-moving bet.

$1,175 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Proven serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable bettor with 9,550 resolved trades and extensive cross-market activity is making a fresh $3,374 bet on No.

  • This bettor is up $1.5M across 9,550 resolved trades, with a 75% win rate.
  • They placed a fresh $3,374 bet on No and have traded across 1,257 events.
  • No is available near their 62¢ entry, with a relatively tight 2¢ spread.

$3,374 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven 82% winner buys Yes

A highly profitable bettor with 1,745 resolved positions and an 82% win rate bought Yes at 39¢, supported by extensive cross-market activity.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 1,745 resolved positions and is up $871,454.
  • They bought Yes at 39¢, close to their 39% average odds, and have traded across 65 events.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

90% winner adding to No

A historically profitable bettor is adding a large No position in a quiet market, though a simultaneous Yes trade in a related market tempers the directional signal.

  • This bettor has won 38 of 42 resolved bets and is up $228,691 lifetime.
  • They added about $22,455 to No at 71¢, alongside an existing $74,750 No position.
  • The alert also includes a large Yes trade in a related market, so the overall event positioning is not purely one-sided.

$77,896 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $139,615
  2. 0x1fee...ed5e — No, $137,117 (88% win rate)
  3. 0xb5d1...6e35 — Yes, $82,090 (40% win rate)
  4. 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $79,610 (79% win rate)
  5. 0x9648...6825 — No, $53,088 (72% win rate)
  6. 0x23d8...0288 — No, $51,131 (81% win rate)
  7. 0x629b...995a — Yes, $37,893 (45% win rate)
  8. 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $34,574 (73% win rate)
  9. 0x1c14...0869 — Yes, $32,175 (67% win rate)
  10. 0x94c4...43ca — Yes, $30,000 (76% win rate)

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Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Kansas Senate Election Winner$89,709 tracked7 signalsKansas MidtermSenate ElectionsMidtermsElectionsUS ElectionPoliticsKey Senate Races
Yes
64¢
No
37¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “Yes”
65¢
51¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 02:43 UTC

$1,181 on No at 49¢

49¢→37¢↓12¢

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-31 23:09 UTC

$1,085 on No at 62¢

62¢→37¢↓25¢

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-31 02:38 UTC

$2,999 on No at 49¢

49¢→37¢↓12¢

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 20:25 UTC

$1,175 on No at 47¢

47¢→37¢↓10¢

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-27 03:21 UTC

$3,374 on No at 62¢

62¢→37¢↓25¢

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-26 05:04 UTC

$2,000 on Yes at 39¢

39¢→64¢↑25¢

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-30 04:45 UTC

$77,896 on No at 71¢

71¢→37¢↓34¢

Related Theses