Part of: Hamburg European Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoe

Hamburg European Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoe

20 smart money signals detected, totaling $138,129.

Notable Trades

Profitable wallets buying underdog

Three profitable high-volume wallets are taking the same underdog side amid a major pre-event volume spike and sharp price volatility.

Three high-volume profitable wallets are all backing Frances Tiafoe, totaling $8.9k on the same side.
The market saw a 22x volume spike and a 26-point swing, suggesting unusually active pre-match positioning.
The cluster’s blended entry is about 28¢, while Tiafoe now trades near 18¢.

$8,926 on Frances Tiafoe

80% winner buying momentum

A highly profitable 80% win-rate wallet bought $12.9k of Carabelli into a major volume spike and 40-point price move, making this a strong sharp-bettor follow signal.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $3.64M lifetime.
They bought $12.9k of Carabelli at 86¢, and the market has already moved to 92¢.
This is part of a 36x volume spike with a 40-point price surge, suggesting strong momentum behind the same side.

$12,900 on Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial sports bettor

Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought Camilo Ugo Carabelli amid a major volume spike and sharp price move from 86% to 92%.

This bettor wins 70% of resolved trades and is up $30,268 lifetime.
They bought $8,600 of Camilo at 86¢ before the market moved to 92¢.
Market volume spiked 36x and Camilo’s odds jumped about 41 points, suggesting strong momentum.

$8,600 on Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Wallet win rate: 77%

Three-wallet contrarian push

Three wallets put $35k on Camilo Ugo Carabelli during a sharp pre-event volume spike, though the main wallet has a poor historical record and the price has since fallen below entry.

Three wallets all bought Camilo Ugo Carabelli, totaling $35k on the same side.
Market activity spiked 25x above normal and Camilo’s price jumped 12 points in about 3 minutes.
This is a flow-based signal, not a proven bettor signal: this wallet is down $109k lifetime.

$13,335 on Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Wallet win rate: 51%

Elite serial sports bettor

A highly profitable serial sports bettor with an 80% record and $3.6M lifetime profit bought Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 43¢, with supporting short-term price movement.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $3.64M lifetime.
They have traded across 236 events with an 80% hit rate, making the wallet itself the main signal.
Their buy helped push Camilo Ugo Carabelli up 12 percentage points in about 3 minutes.

$2,992 on Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial sports bettor

A highly experienced, profitable wallet bought Carabelli amid a sharp upward move, giving this modest-sized trade more signal than the dollar amount alone suggests.

This bettor is up $2.8M across 32,688 resolved bets, with a 56% hit rate over a huge sample.
Carabelli jumped 12 points in about 3 minutes and is up 25.5 points today, matching the direction of this buy.
Entry at 66¢ implies the bettor sees Carabelli as meaningfully underpriced versus the market’s prior level.

$1,223 on Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Wallet win rate: 55%

46-0 sharp bettor

Elite 46-0 profitable wallet bought Frances Tiafoe at 31¢ despite Carabelli's sharp recent move, making the bettor's track record the core signal.

This bettor has won 46 of 46 resolved positions and is up $334k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 55 events with a perfect resolved record.
Entry at 31¢ backs Tiafoe as an underdog after a large 1-day price move against him.

$3,341 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 100%

80% winner buying favorite

Sharp-wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with an 80% record and +$466k lifetime P&L bought $5k of Camilo despite only weak price-impact signals.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $466k lifetime.
They put $5k on Camilo at 72¢ in a liquid tennis market.
Camilo has surged 27.5 percentage points today, and this sharp is still backing the move.

$5,000 on Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial sports trader

A highly experienced, profitable sports trader bought Tiafoe at 30¢ before the market repriced to 45¢, suggesting a well-timed value entry.

This bettor has traded over 32,000 resolved markets and is up $2.8M lifetime.
They bought Frances Tiafoe at 30¢, and the market has already moved to 45¢.
The trade came from a serial cross-market bettor with activity across 1,600+ events.

$1,748 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 55%

Sharp cluster buying underdog

High-scoring one-sided Camilo flow led by profitable sports wallets, including an 82% winner up $632k and a serial cross-market trader with an 80% win rate.

A bettor who wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $632k effectively bought Camilo by selling Tiafoe.
Four wallets put $8.8k on the same side, with Camilo moving sharply during the alert window.
Another wallet in the cluster has won 80% of 871 resolved bets and is up $466k lifetime.

$8,834 on Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Top Holders

0x3936...366d — Outcome 40840986, $64,025 (100% win rate)
0x03f8...d85a — Outcome 40840986, $12,540 (96% win rate)
0x482d...ba5e — Outcome 40840986, $8,000 (57% win rate)
0xb5a4...5780 — Outcome 40840986, $7,533 (80% win rate)
0x160b...4296 — Outcome 40840986, $7,134 (77% win rate)
0x54ba...04e4 — Outcome 40840986, $6,116 (77% win rate)
0x32b4...8b21 — Outcome 40840986, $5,283 (57% win rate)
0x288c...3641 — Outcome 40840986, $3,837 (43% win rate)
0xe4d3...c2f0 — Outcome 40840986, $1,767 (69% win rate)
0x18de...7c92 — Outcome 40840986, $1,509 (92% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Iran keeps Belgium low-scoring

Covers 7 related markets

Japan covers in three-goal game

Covers 6 related markets

Argentina wins low scoring match

Covers 5 related markets

Hamburg European Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoe

ResolvedHamburg European Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoe$138,129 tracked20 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Frances Tiafoe in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for May 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.