Part of: South Carolina Senate Election Winner

Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether the Democratic nominee will win South Carolina’s 2026 U.S. Senate election, including any runoff. Current odds were not included in the supplied market data; PolySpotter tracks $7,707 in smart-money activity across one signal, with mixed positioning reported.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $90,148.

Categories: South Carolina Midterm, Senate Elections, Midterms, Elections, Politics, US Election

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor with mixed positioning

A highly profitable bettor with a 78% record and substantial gains made a sizable position, though the alert includes opposing trades and the large Yes entry has since moved sharply against them.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 46 resolved bets and is up $332,485.
  • The largest trade was a $12,976 buy on Yes at 72¢, but Yes is now 28¢; the alert also includes a smaller opposing No buy.
  • The mixed trades across two related markets make this less clear-cut than a one-way conviction bet.

$14,246 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Profitable serial trader backs No

A highly profitable, 231-market trader with an 81% win rate placed a $10.7K bet on No, reinforcing a strong bearish view on the Democrats' chances.

  • This bettor has won 187 of 231 resolved bets and is up $4.6M lifetime.
  • They put $10,721 on No at 84¢, a sizeable position for a trader active across 191 events.
  • The market has $153K in liquidity, so this is a meaningful conviction bet rather than a move in an unusually thin book.

$10,721 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable sharp scaling into No

A highly profitable 90%-win-rate trader added $26,756 to an existing large No position at 87¢ in a thin market.

  • This bettor has won 38 of 42 resolved trades and is up $228,691 overall.
  • They added $26,756 to No at 87¢, alongside an existing $169,824 No position.
  • The market has only $358 in 24-hour volume, so this is a substantial bet relative to recent activity.

$57,474 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable whale adding to No

A proven, highly profitable bettor is adding to a substantial No position, though the alert also includes a conflicting Yes trade.

  • This bettor has won 90% of 42 resolved bets and is up about $229,000.
  • They already hold roughly $138,000 in No and bought more at 86¢.
  • The alert also includes a Yes buy at 86¢, so the recent trades are not a clean one-way signal.

$7,707 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1fee...ed5e — No, $211,133 (88% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $111,961
  3. 0xb5d1...6e35 — Yes, $70,483 (40% win rate)
  4. 0x4488...e319 — No, $66,258 (52% win rate)
  5. 0xdc41...dd7e — Yes, $62,341 (46% win rate)
  6. 0xaab9...a08d — Yes, $52,108 (56% win rate)
  7. 0x94c4...43ca — Yes, $50,000 (76% win rate)
  8. 0xeb22...808a — Yes, $50,000 (35% win rate)
  9. 0x9703...69c2 — No, $36,144 (76% win rate)
  10. 0x9c26...74bc — No, $22,000 (91% win rate)

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Republicans will win South Carolina

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Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

South Carolina Senate Election Winner$90,148 tracked4 signalsSouth Carolina MidtermSenate ElectionsMidtermsElectionsPoliticsUS Election
Yes
32¢
No
69¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “No”
81¢
74¢
67¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-29 17:22 UTC

$14,246 on Yes at 72¢

72¢→32¢↓40¢

Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-07 22:14 UTC

$10,721 on No at 84¢

84¢→69¢↓15¢

Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-01 22:51 UTC

$57,474 on No at 87¢

87¢→69¢↓18¢

Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

2026-09-29 00:56 UTC

$7,707 on No at 86¢

86¢→69¢↓17¢

Related Theses