Part of: Durable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,940.

Categories: Economy, Growth, Goods, rewards 200, 4.5, 20 Deprec

Notable Trades

86% macro bettor bought NO

Sharp wallet override: an 86% winner with positive lifetime P&L bought No at 85% on a macro data market that has since moved to 100%.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $53.6K lifetime.
  • They put $2.94K on No at 85¢ in a relatively quiet macro bracket market.
  • The position has already moved to 100%, suggesting the market quickly agreed with the trade.

$2,940 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 11475046, $2,166
  2. 0x128b...7c4f Outcome 51494070, $521
  3. 0x1cdd...e595 Outcome 51494070, $150
  4. 0x21a3...9e97 Outcome 51494070, $145
  5. 0x8b44...63fb Outcome 51494070, $142
  6. 0xc518...2594 Outcome 51494070, $100
  7. 0xdad7...005a Outcome 51494070, $85
  8. 0x9a94...d5f9 Outcome 51494070, $50
  9. 0xfc23...5a3d Outcome 51494070, $50
  10. 0xcff7...2fb1 Outcome 51494070, $44

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?

ResolvedDurable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026$2,940 tracked1 signalEconomyGrowthGoodsrewards 200, 4.5, 20 Deprec

This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Notable Trades

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?

27d ago

$2,940 on No at 85¢

Related Theses