Part of: Eurovision 2026: Top 5

Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,770.

Categories: Culture, Music, Awards, Eurovision

Notable Trades

Profitable Eurovision cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is building a broader Eurovision thesis, effectively buying Italy top-5 Yes at 24¢ after moving No sharply lower.

This wallet is profitable overall, up $38.8k across nearly $2.0M wagered.
They have $30.7k across 4 related Eurovision markets, suggesting a broader event-level thesis.
Selling No at 76¢ equals buying Yes at 24¢, with No dropping 15.5 points in 4 minutes.

$2,830 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 27%

Profitable trader flips No

Profitable high-volume Eurovision trader flipped from a prior Italy Yes position into a larger No bet, with meaningful price impact in a moderately thin market.

This bettor is up $38K lifetime and has traded nearly $2M, despite a low hit rate.
They flipped from a prior Italy Yes position into a $2.9K No buy, suggesting a changed view.
The No side has moved sharply higher, and this trade was large relative to the market’s $4.9K liquidity.

$2,940 on No | Wallet win rate: 27%

Top Holders

0x594e...1c11 — Outcome 29632720, $5,111 (77% win rate)
0x2e48...95c7 — Outcome 29632720, $4,000 (93% win rate)
0xa5e3...4d7e — Outcome 29632720, $2,162 (19% win rate)
0xc0d9...da5e — Outcome 29632720, $1,283 (93% win rate)
0x8432...8360 — Outcome 29632720, $1,000 (50% win rate)
0x588d...099a — Outcome 29632720, $760 (25% win rate)
0xbab6...50a2 — Outcome 29632720, $755 (69% win rate)
0x8f45...d3b8 — Outcome 29632720, $736
0x7a8f...d72e — Outcome 25393545, $668
0xd3b2...296e — Outcome 25393545, $550

Related Theses

Australia or Greece wins Eurovision

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Italy makes Eurovision top ten

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Armenia advances in Eurovision

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Israel loses Eurovision televote

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Canada loses to European contender

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Italy, Greece, Bulgaria make top five

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Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

ResolvedEurovision 2026: Top 5$5,770 tracked2 signalsCultureMusicAwardsEurovision

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.