Part of: SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

This market asks whether SpaceX’s market capitalization will be greater than $2.0 trillion at the closing price on its first day of public trading. If SpaceX does not IPO by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No IPO before 2028.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,521 in smart-money activity across 1 signal, including recent Yes buying from high-win-rate traders.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,414.

Categories: Tech, IPO, Finance, Elon Musk, Big Tech, Science, IPOs, Space, SpaceX, Climate & Science

Notable Trades

84% winner buying Yes

Surfaced because a highly profitable wallet with an 84% record and $133k lifetime profit bought Yes despite only a weak composite score.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $133k lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 66¢, implying confidence in a $2T+ SpaceX IPO-day valuation.
  • The bet is meaningful for this quiet market, equal to about 38% of the last 24h volume.

$1,521 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp bettor buying Yes

Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with an 86% record is buying Yes despite only modest trade size and a long-dated market.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $32K lifetime.
  • Their record beats market odds by 29 percentage points across 42 resolved bets.
  • The $2.7K buy was large relative to recent activity, adding conviction at 74¢.

$2,689 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

90% win-rate serial trader

Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate and $262k profit bought Yes on the SpaceX IPO market-cap threshold.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $262k lifetime.
  • They have traded 42 markets across 36 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Entry at 67¢ implies they still see upside despite the market already favoring Yes.

$2,204 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 13795751, $106,619
  2. 0x87d3...0e8b Outcome 13795751, $12,000 (24% win rate)
  3. 0x3764...c5eb Outcome 13795751, $4,877 (63% win rate)
  4. 0xe75f...4b58 Outcome 13795751, $3,647
  5. 0x3fdb...6919 Outcome 13795751, $3,496
  6. 0xf566...1386 Outcome 13795751, $3,020 (60% win rate)
  7. 0x6305...9d0b Outcome 13795751, $2,558 (71% win rate)
  8. 0x5b63...11a4 Outcome 13795751, $1,625 (69% win rate)
  9. 0x7b02...4991 Outcome 13795751, $1,586 (57% win rate)
  10. 0x8a4c...532b Outcome 13795751, $1,400 (52% win rate)

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Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

530dSpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)$6,414 tracked3 signalsTechIPOFinanceElon MuskBig TechScienceIPOsSpaceSpaceXClimate & Science

This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Notable Trades

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

37d ago

$1,521 on Yes at 66¢

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

50d ago

$2,689 on Yes at 74¢

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

57d ago

$2,204 on Yes at 67¢

Related Theses