Part of: SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
This market asks whether SpaceX’s market capitalization will be greater than $2.0 trillion at the closing price on its first day of public trading. If SpaceX does not IPO by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No IPO before 2028.” PolySpotter currently tracks $1,521 in smart-money activity across 1 signal, including recent Yes buying from high-win-rate traders.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,414.
Categories: Tech, IPO, Finance, Elon Musk, Big Tech, Science, IPOs, Space, SpaceX, Climate & Science
Notable Trades
84% winner buying Yes
Surfaced because a highly profitable wallet with an 84% record and $133k lifetime profit bought Yes despite only a weak composite score.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $133k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 66¢, implying confidence in a $2T+ SpaceX IPO-day valuation.
- The bet is meaningful for this quiet market, equal to about 38% of the last 24h volume.
$1,521 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor buying Yes
Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with an 86% record is buying Yes despite only modest trade size and a long-dated market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $32K lifetime.
- Their record beats market odds by 29 percentage points across 42 resolved bets.
- The $2.7K buy was large relative to recent activity, adding conviction at 74¢.
$2,689 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
90% win-rate serial trader
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate and $262k profit bought Yes on the SpaceX IPO market-cap threshold.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $262k lifetime.
- They have traded 42 markets across 36 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 67¢ implies they still see upside despite the market already favoring Yes.
$2,204 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 13795751, $106,619
- 0x87d3...0e8b — Outcome 13795751, $12,000 (24% win rate)
- 0x3764...c5eb — Outcome 13795751, $4,877 (63% win rate)
- 0xe75f...4b58 — Outcome 13795751, $3,647
- 0x3fdb...6919 — Outcome 13795751, $3,496
- 0xf566...1386 — Outcome 13795751, $3,020 (60% win rate)
- 0x6305...9d0b — Outcome 13795751, $2,558 (71% win rate)
- 0x5b63...11a4 — Outcome 13795751, $1,625 (69% win rate)
- 0x7b02...4991 — Outcome 13795751, $1,586 (57% win rate)
- 0x8a4c...532b — Outcome 13795751, $1,400 (52% win rate)
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