Part of: Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Sebastian Baez

Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Sebastian Baez

This Polymarket market covers the Rolex Paris Masters match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Sebastian Baez, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026. It resolves to the player who advances, with resolution scheduled for November 11, 2026; odds are not included in the provided market metadata. PolySpotter tracks $8,230 in smart money across one signal, including a reported three-wallet tennis buying surge.

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Sebastian Baez in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,823.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Four-wallet Baez cluster with proven bettors

Four wallets, including highly experienced profitable bettors, positioned for Baez amid a major volume spike, though the price has since moved sharply against them.

  • Four wallets committed about $16,400 to Baez, including two large direct buys and sells of the opposing outcome.
  • One bettor has won 72% of 1,205 resolved trades and earned over $4.4M; another has an 84% record across 25 trades.
  • Baez has since fallen from 41–43¢ entries to 22¢, so the coordinated position is notable but the price move is a caution.

$16,393 on Sebastian Baez

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A profitable, highly active trader with a strong historical record sold Baez as a volume spike and sharp price drop reinforced the opposing Daniel Merida Aguilar position.

  • This bettor has won 67% of 1,700 resolved bets and is up $256,543 lifetime.
  • A 36.6× volume spike and a 21-point drop in Baez’s price support the move toward Daniel Merida Aguilar.
  • The sell of Baez at 22¢ translates to buying Daniel at about 78¢.

$2,200 on Daniel Merida Aguilar | Wallet win rate: 67%

Three-wallet tennis buying surge

Three wallets committed $8,230 to Daniel Merida Aguilar amid an extreme volume spike, with multiple high-volume traders adding corroboration.

  • Three wallets bought Daniel Merida Aguilar for a combined $8,230, including one trader with a 70% win rate across 182,383 resolved bets.
  • The alert coincided with a reported 1,547× spike in trading volume, suggesting unusually strong interest in this side.
  • Shares were bought at 66–67¢, with current odds near 66%.

$8,230 on Daniel Merida Aguilar

Top Holders

  1. 0xe907...cff6 — Sebastian Baez, $17,357 (45% win rate)
  2. 0x2a69...d2f7 — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $16,966 (70% win rate)
  3. 0x076d...8d4c — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $12,697 (69% win rate)
  4. 0xfe78...0319 — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $11,873 (64% win rate)
  5. 0x26b4...b8a9 — Sebastian Baez, $11,450 (72% win rate)
  6. 0xcf6c...7e66 — Sebastian Baez, $8,982 (81% win rate)
  7. 0x7750...a3f3 — Sebastian Baez, $8,425 (28% win rate)
  8. 0x5c50...e0c9 — Sebastian Baez, $7,682 (27% win rate)
  9. 0x02fd...104c — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $3,214 (51% win rate)
  10. 0xeea3...a6a2 — Daniel Merida Aguilar, $3,089 (55% win rate)

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Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Sebastian Baez

Daniel Merida Aguilar
100¢
Sebastian Baez
0¢

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Sebastian Baez in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Sebastian Baez

2026-11-02 14:12 UTC

$16,393 on Sebastian Baez at 35¢

Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Sebastian Baez

2026-11-02 14:08 UTC

$2,200 on Daniel Merida Aguilar at 78¢

78¢→100¢↑22¢

Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Sebastian Baez

2026-11-02 13:54 UTC

$8,230 on Daniel Merida Aguilar at 67¢

67¢→100¢↑33¢

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