Part of: World Cup: No. of Matches Decided by Penalty Shootout
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This prediction market asks whether at least 8 matches in the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be decided by penalty shootout. Only knockout-stage matches can count, and the market is scheduled to resolve after the tournament on July 20, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $4,000 in smart money activity and 1 signal, with recent alerts showing strong winning-trader buying on No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of matches decided by a penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A match is counted if it proceeds to a penalty shootout to determine the result. Only knockout-stage matches can be decided by shootout. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $20,658.
Categories: Sports, Tournament Futures, world cup, FIFA World Cup, Soccer, 2026 FIFA World Cup
Notable Trades
94% winner on soccer unders
Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved win rate and positive P&L is buying No on a thin World Cup shootout market as part of a broader cross-market soccer thesis.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $43K lifetime.
- They have $11.5K spread across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader World Cup thesis.
- The market is thin, and this $2.9K buy was about a full day’s volume at 77¢.
$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
98% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with a 98% resolved-bet win rate and strong P&L bought a sizable NO position in a thin World Cup shootout market, with price moving sharply in its favor.
- This bettor has won 57 of 58 resolved bets and is up $43k lifetime.
- They put $3.6k on NO in a thin market, buying at about 71¢ before it moved to 89¢.
- This is part of a broader 4-market World Cup thesis totaling $6.7k.
$4,767 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% winner on soccer unders
Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved win rate and positive P&L is buying No on a thin World Cup shootout market as part of a broader cross-market soccer thesis.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $43K lifetime.
- They have $11.5K spread across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader World Cup thesis.
- The market is thin, and this $2.9K buy was about a full day’s volume at 77¢.
$2,910 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
98% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with a 98% resolved-bet win rate and strong P&L bought a sizable NO position in a thin World Cup shootout market, with price moving sharply in its favor.
- This bettor has won 57 of 58 resolved bets and is up $43k lifetime.
- They put $3.6k on NO in a thin market, buying at about 71¢ before it moved to 89¢.
- This is part of a broader 4-market World Cup thesis totaling $6.7k.
$5,374 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
98% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with a 98% resolved-bet win rate and strong P&L bought a sizable NO position in a thin World Cup shootout market, with price moving sharply in its favor.
- This bettor has won 57 of 58 resolved bets and is up $43k lifetime.
- They put $3.6k on NO in a thin market, buying at about 71¢ before it moved to 89¢.
- This is part of a broader 4-market World Cup thesis totaling $6.7k.
$3,605 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x5fd8...ce32 — No, $25,044 (94% win rate)
- 0x1104...002a — Yes, $9,401 (62% win rate)
- 0xd5d8...e9a1 — Yes, $9,000 (57% win rate)
- 0xb410...7736 — Yes, $4,355 (79% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $2,357 (47% win rate)
- 0x9a3f...914a — Yes, $2,206 (58% win rate)
- 0x4d02...bfec — No, $654
- 0x2b3d...8db7 — Yes, $500
- 0x9bf6...4a06 — Yes, $500
- 0xf021...df56 — No, $445
Related Theses
World Cup has few shootouts
Covers 4 related markets
Established nations reach knockouts
Covers 7 related markets