What does this WTI $70 prediction market measure?

It measures whether the active-month WTI crude oil futures contract records a final 1-minute candle low at or below $70 at any point in April 2026. If that happens even once during the month, the market resolves Yes.

How does this Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle for the active-month WTI futures contract has a Low price of $70.00 or below during April 2026. Otherwise, it resolves No after the month ends.

What is the active month for WTI futures in this market?

The active month is the nearest listed WTI futures contract month. It rolls to the next listed contract at 6:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days before the current contract's last trading day, following the market's rules.

Does WTI need to close below $70 for Yes to win?

No. WTI does not need to close below $70. The market only requires that a 1-minute candle's Low touches or breaks $70 during April 2026.

Why are traders watching this WTI April 2026 market?

This market offers a direct way to price the chance of a sharp downside move in oil during April 2026. Traders may use it to track sentiment around crude demand, supply shocks, OPEC headlines, macro data, and broader commodity volatility.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?

This Polymarket asks whether the active-month WTI crude oil futures contract will print a 1-minute candle low of $70 or lower at any time during April 2026. It resolves Yes if that price is touched even briefly during the month, and No if WTI stays above $70 for all of April. Traders following WTI prediction market odds are using this market to gauge downside oil-price risk into the April 30, 2026 resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

13 smart money signals detected, totaling $55,876.

Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Commodities, Oil

Notable Trades

Pro oil-event specialist

A proven high-volume trader with 903 resolved bets and $208k profit is making a sizable cross-market oil thesis bet, buying No at 88¢ across 7 related markets.

This bettor has 903 resolved bets, a 66% win rate, and is up about $208k overall
They have traded 7 markets in this same oil event for $67.6k total, showing a coordinated event-wide thesis
Buying No at 88¢ suggests they see the $70 low as unlikely even after this market moved up 5 points over the last week

$7,707 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Profitable new oil bettor

A 12-day-old wallet with repeat large bets and strong early profits is building a broader crude-oil thesis, making this small add-on worth watching despite limited resolved history.

This 12-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts and is up about $19.8k on $26.1k invested
They are betting across 4 related oil markets, which suggests a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
Bought Yes at 13¢ in a liquid market, implying they think the chance of WTI hitting $70 this month is meaningfully higher

$1,078 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 33%

97% win-rate oil bettor

A bettor with a 97% win rate is building a cross-market oil thesis, and this trade aligns with their strong history of buying high-probability outcomes profitably.

This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with $66.5k profit across 67 settled bets
They placed $41.7k across 4 related oil markets, showing a broader event-level thesis
They bought No at 89¢ in a liquid market, backing a high-confidence view that WTI stays above $70 this month

$3,527 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Proven WTI ladder trader

A proven cross-market commodities trader with 892 resolved bets and $196k profit is buying No at 88¢ across 7 related WTI levels, suggesting a structured thesis rather than a one-off trade.

This bettor has 892 resolved trades, wins 65% of them, and is up about $196k lifetime
They placed $57k across 7 related WTI markets in the same event, showing a clear structured view on crude prices
Buying No at 88¢ means backing the oil low to stay above $70, and this market still has solid liquidity with a tight 1¢ spread

$3,371 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

83% oil thesis bettor

A profitable 83% win-rate trader is building a consistent cross-market oil thesis, buying No at 84¢ in a liquid market where odds have recently moved their way.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $3.3k overall.
They have put $31.5k across 3 related oil markets, which points to a deliberate event-wide view.
They bought No at 84¢ while this market now sits around 82¢ No, showing steady conviction rather than a one-off punt.

$8,313 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

83% win-rate oil thesis

A profitable wallet with an 83% win rate is building a cross-market oil thesis and just made an $11.7k bet on No at 80¢ in a liquid market that has recently moved toward Yes.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up money overall.
They have bet $34.8k across 3 related oil markets, which suggests a broader event view instead of a one-off trade.
They bought No at 80¢ while this market has jumped 12 points in a day, signaling they may see the recent move as overdone.

$11,671 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

87% win-rate oil bettor

A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate is expressing a broad cross-market oil thesis here, and this sell converts into a buy on No at 80¢.

This bettor wins 87% of their resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime
They have been active across 6 related oil markets with nearly $29k in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade
This sale of Yes at 20¢ is equivalent to buying No at 80¢ in a liquid market that has already moved 13 points in a day

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

90% winner, event thesis

A wallet with a 90% hit rate is making a fresh cross-market oil event bet by effectively buying Yes at 16¢, which stands out despite the small size because it fits a broad multi-market thesis.

This bettor has won 19 of 21 resolved markets, a 90% hit rate.
They have traded 8 related oil markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Selling No at 84¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, close to the current 18¢ market price.

$1,176 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

90% winner, oil thesis

A high-win-rate wallet with a strong cross-market commodities thesis added another leg by buying No at 90¢ on this WTI level market.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades, with 19 wins in 21 markets.
They have been betting across 4 related oil markets, which suggests a broader event view rather than a one-off punt.
They bought No at 90¢, implying they see the $70 low as unlikely before April ends.

$1,030 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

86% oil thesis bettor

A high-performing wallet with an 86% win rate is building a cross-market oil thesis, and this trade converts to buying Yes at 13¢ in a liquid market.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $331k lifetime
They have put $28k across 5 related oil markets, which points to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
This trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 13¢, after this market already moved up 8 points over the past week

$1,129 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%