Part of: World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages

Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This prediction market tracks whether the United States will advance from the group stage to the knockout stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. PolySpotter is tracking $4,978 in smart-money activity on this market, including a recent quiet-market whale bet, with resolution expected once the Round of 32 field is determined or the USA is mathematically eliminated.

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,978.

Categories: FIFA World Cup, Sports, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Soccer

Notable Trades

Quiet-market whale bet

A single wallet made a nearly $5k BUY Yes that dwarfs recent activity in a very thin long-dated World Cup market, though the wallet has no proven edge.

  • A bettor put nearly $5k on Yes, over 8x the market’s 24-hour volume.
  • The bet was large relative to available liquidity, suggesting strong conviction in a thin market.
  • Entry at 87¢ is expensive, but implies the bettor sees USA advancing as very likely.

$4,978 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb046...857c No, $6,437 (48% win rate)
  2. 0x1469...aa70 Yes, $6,307 (61% win rate)
  3. 0xa919...85e9 No, $626
  4. 0x28ca...5d19 No, $516 (68% win rate)
  5. 0x373a...f4c1 Yes, $500
  6. 0x4205...128e Yes, $275
  7. 0x6c10...df5c Yes, $200 (65% win rate)
  8. 0x5b63...11a4 Yes, $189 (70% win rate)
  9. 0xd218...b5c9 Yes, $112 (50% win rate)
  10. 0xc5fe...e320 Yes, $100 (45% win rate)

Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

27dWorld Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages$4,978 tracked1 signalFIFA World CupSports2026 FIFA World CupSoccer
Yes
87¢
No
14¢

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Yes
88¢
85¢
81¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

2h ago

$4,978 on Yes at 87¢

87¢87¢