Part of: World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,977.
Categories: FIFA World Cup, Sports, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Soccer
Notable Trades
Quiet-market conviction bet
A single bettor put nearly $3k on Yes in a quiet World Cup market, more than 12x recent volume, but the wallet track record is still very small.
- A bettor put nearly $3k on Yes, over 12x the market’s recent 24h volume.
- The wallet is up about $6k on resolved bets, though only across 2 wins so far.
- Entry at 84¢ is a high-confidence bet that USA advances from its group.
$2,999 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Quiet-market whale bet
A single wallet made a nearly $5k BUY Yes that dwarfs recent activity in a very thin long-dated World Cup market, though the wallet has no proven edge.
- A bettor put nearly $5k on Yes, over 8x the market’s 24-hour volume.
- The bet was large relative to available liquidity, suggesting strong conviction in a thin market.
- Entry at 87¢ is expensive, but implies the bettor sees USA advancing as very likely.
$4,978 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 61%
Top Holders
- 0x1341...0853 — Outcome 10504688, $20,051 (85% win rate)
- 0x8fe4...8970 — Outcome 10504688, $20,000
- 0x0333...d37c — Outcome 10504688, $4,132
- 0x3e88...0c70 — Outcome 10504688, $2,946
- 0x56c2...6219 — Outcome 10504688, $1,000
- 0xd4e7...b0f7 — Outcome 10504688, $984
- 0xe89c...3d99 — Outcome 10504688, $830
- 0xa919...85e9 — Outcome 10504688, $626
- 0x4985...7f19 — Outcome 10504688, $588
- 0x9a4f...04bb — Outcome 10504688, $588
Related Theses
Canada USA advance, Netherlands misses
Covers 3 related markets
