Part of: Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon
This prediction market covers the Roland Garros ATP match between Matteo Arnaldi and Raphael Collignon, originally scheduled for May 30, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. It resolves to the player who advances, with resolution expected by June 6, 2026; PolySpotter is tracking $3,502 in smart money and 1 signal, including whale and sharp-wallet activity around both the favorite and underdog.
24 smart money signals detected, totaling $187,649.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Four-wallet Arnaldi fade
Coordinated Arnaldi selling effectively built a Collignon position at much better than current odds, backed by a new profitable wallet and a major pre-event volume spike, though opposing Arnaldi flow makes it contested.
- Four wallets effectively bought Collignon for about 36¢, and that side is now trading near 52¢.
- A brand-new 8-hour-old wallet joined the move with 9 positions already and $1,345 in profit.
- The market saw a 26x volume spike and sharp price swings, suggesting informed money is actively battling over this match.
$11,972 on Raphael Collignon
Profitable pro joins steam
A highly profitable serial sports bettor bought Arnaldi alongside 8-wallet one-sided flow, a 26x volume spike, and a major price move upward.
- This bettor is up $14.2M lifetime across nearly 10,000 resolved markets.
- 8 wallets are all buying Matteo Arnaldi, totaling $35.6K in the same direction.
- Arnaldi’s price has jumped sharply with a 26x volume spike, suggesting strong market momentum.
$1,267 on Matteo Arnaldi | Wallet win rate: 70%
94% winner joins Arnaldi flow
Sharp 94% winning wallet bought Matteo Arnaldi amid coordinated one-sided flow, a major volume spike, and strong price impact.
- This bettor has won 17 of 18 resolved positions and is up about $201K lifetime.
- Eight wallets bought Matteo Arnaldi in the same window, totaling $35.6K on one side.
- Arnaldi’s price jumped about 35 points with volume running 26x above normal.
$4,799 on Matteo Arnaldi | Wallet win rate: 95%
8-wallet Arnaldi surge
Strong coordinated Arnaldi flow from 8 wallets, backed by a profitable high-volume bettor, a 26x volume spike, and a sharp price move.
- A seasoned bettor with 767 resolved trades is backing Arnaldi and is up $75,943 lifetime.
- 8 wallets bought the same side, totaling $35,614 on Arnaldi.
- Market activity spiked 26x and Arnaldi’s price jumped about 35%, suggesting strong one-way momentum.
$2,000 on Matteo Arnaldi | Wallet win rate: 59%
New profitable Collignon flow
High-score alert from a brand-new profitable wallet joining one-sided Collignon flow during a major volume spike.
- An 8-hour-old wallet is already up $1,345 and has 9 positions open.
- Three wallets have put $7.1k on Collignon in the same direction.
- Volume is running 18x above normal, with odds moving sharply before the match.
$2,561 on Raphael Collignon | Wallet win rate: 17%
Profitable momentum bettor
Experienced profitable sports trader bought Collignon before a sharp 15-point move, though the wallet’s track record is solid rather than elite.
- This bettor is up $52K lifetime across $1.5M traded.
- They bought Collignon at 67¢ before the market moved to 72¢.
- This wallet has traded across 55 events, suggesting an experienced sports bettor rather than a one-off bet.
$2,130 on Raphael Collignon | Wallet win rate: 57%
Sharp cluster buying underdog
Five wallets, including highly profitable tennis/sports-style traders, are collectively positioning on Raphael Collignon after a sharp odds move.
- Five wallets put $11.6k on Raphael Collignon, all in the same direction.
- One bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $88.6k lifetime.
- Another large trader is up $14.2M lifetime and joined the same side.
$11,631 on Raphael Collignon
Proven serial sports trader
Sharp serial sports trader with a 75% win rate and +$401k lifetime P&L bought Raphael Collignon despite the market drifting back to 50/50.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $402k lifetime.
- They have traded across 486 events with over $2.0M in total volume, suggesting a repeatable sports-market edge.
- They bought Raphael Collignon at 53¢ in a now-even market, so followers may be able to enter cheaper than the original trade.
$1,245 on Raphael Collignon | Wallet win rate: 75%
94% winner leads cluster
High-scoring Arnaldi cluster led by a 94% winning bettor and reinforced by heavy one-sided flow, a major volume spike, and strong price momentum.
- A bettor who wins 94% of resolved bets and is up $200K bought about $14.7K of Matteo Arnaldi near 48¢.
- Seven wallets put $35.9K on the same Arnaldi side, with the market up 13 points over the past day.
- Volume is 18x normal and Arnaldi buying pushed the price sharply, suggesting coordinated conviction before the match.
$35,938 on Matteo Arnaldi
85% win-rate bettor
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 85% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit, making the $10.3k Collignon buy worth surfacing despite the low composite score.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $181k lifetime.
- They put $10.3k on Raphael Collignon at 71¢, showing meaningful conviction.
- Their historical edge is strong: 11 wins from 13 resolved bets at average odds of 59%.
$10,252 on Raphael Collignon | Wallet win rate: 85%
Top Holders
- 0x3d6a...c2b5 — Outcome 93257141, $84,856
- 0xa9c4...7433 — Outcome 10701823, $26,096 (81% win rate)
- 0x780a...84f0 — Outcome 93257141, $25,704 (85% win rate)
- 0x5ba6...0f07 — Outcome 93257141, $25,612 (38% win rate)
- 0x6f3e...bcf8 — Outcome 10701823, $14,926 (47% win rate)
- 0x5375...aeea — Outcome 10701823, $9,420 (44% win rate)
- 0x8a67...e403 — Outcome 93257141, $9,000 (89% win rate)
- 0xf164...8fa4 — Outcome 10701823, $6,553 (57% win rate)
- 0x01c7...e995 — Outcome 10701823, $6,126 (63% win rate)
- 0xe394...289c — Outcome 93257141, $6,000 (85% win rate)
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