Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?
This Polymarket asks whether Ukraine will re-enter Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, by April 30, 2026. It resolves to Yes if the ISW map shows Ukraine capturing any part of Rodynske between market creation and the resolution deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders follow this market as a real-time signal on battlefield momentum and territorial changes in eastern Ukraine.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.351541° N, 37.210747° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,412.
Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine Map, Ukraine
Notable Trades
98% win-rate bettor
A bettor with an exceptional 98% win rate and strong edge opened a fresh $1,000 No position in this active war map market, making it worth following despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 56 of 57 resolved trades and has been profitable with a rare edge over the prices they pay.
- They bought No at 57¢ in an active news-driven market after a sharp recent move, suggesting they see the latest rally as overdone.
- The trade is small versus market liquidity, but the wallet's track record makes the signal worth watching.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
Conviction breakout buyer
A $10.2k buy drove a huge breakout in a Ukraine war market, suggesting strong conviction behind a sharp move rather than routine flow.
- A single wallet bought $10.2k of Yes at 63¢, more than the market's prior 24h volume.
- The trade came as Yes broke sharply higher, with the market up 44 points in a day after clearing its old range.
- This is a real-world geopolitics market with meaningful size, so a concentrated buy into momentum is worth watching.
$10,189 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable war-market grinder
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with a 73% win rate bought Yes at 21¢, a favorable entry below the current 24¢ price in a moderately active geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 789 of 1,075 resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime
- They trade across 206 markets in 123 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
- Bought Yes at 21¢ and the market is already 24¢, giving early confirmation on the entry
$1,223 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Top Holders
- 0x8f69...7df1 — Yes, $16,060 (69% win rate)
- 0x7c8b...a211 — No, $11,587
- 0x7590...d6e0 — No, $3,663 (98% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $3,543 (57% win rate)
- 0xbfe2...8c49 — No, $2,367 (65% win rate)
- 0xa0bc...d428 — Yes, $2,078
- 0xb26c...0eb0 — Yes, $1,603
- 0x75d1...7a5f — Yes, $1,567
- 0x3a86...4216 — No, $1,470 (78% win rate)
- 0xab01...881a — No, $1,402
