Part of: Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
This Polymarket market asks whether Variational’s governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $500 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price, and the token must be publicly transferable and tradable for launch to count. PolySpotter is tracking $1,393 in smart money activity across 1 signal on this crypto pre-market outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,532.
Categories: Crypto, Pre-Market, Variational, FDV, fdv
Notable Trades
Perfect-record crypto bettor
Surface due to the sharp-wallet override: this wallet is 11-for-11 with positive P&L and is buying Yes in a relatively quiet niche crypto market.
- This bettor has won all 11 resolved bets and is up $2.1K lifetime.
- They bought $1.4K of Yes, a large trade versus recent activity in this market.
- Entry at 69¢ suggests they see Variational clearing $500M FDV as meaningfully more likely than the market implies.
$1,393 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
84% winner buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with an 84% resolved win rate is buying Yes on a relatively quiet crypto FDV market.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $11.8K lifetime.
- They bought $2.2K of Yes at 68¢ in a market with only about $4.3K traded in the past day.
- Entry at 68¢ suggests they see Variational clearing the $500M FDV threshold as underpriced.
$2,217 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable wallet on quiet market
Profitable high-volume wallet made a concentrated Yes bet on a very quiet token-FDV market while also positioning across the same event.
- This bettor has won 73% of 129 resolved trades and is up about $10k lifetime.
- The $3.7k Yes buy was large for a quiet market, with one fill over 9x the recent 24h volume.
- They are also positioning across another market in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis on Variational’s launch valuation.
$3,705 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Sharp crypto bettor buying YES
Sharp profitable wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win rate is buying Yes on a niche crypto FDV market where specialized knowledge could matter.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $11.8K lifetime.
- They put $2.4K into a quiet crypto FDV market, about half of the past day’s volume.
- Entry at 64¢ implies they see Yes as meaningfully underpriced.
$2,446 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
96% winner buying quiet crypto launch
A high-win-rate wallet with $47k profit made a fresh Yes bet on a quiet crypto FDV market, though the size is modest and price has moved against them.
- This bettor has won 23 of 24 resolved trades and is up $47k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 50¢ in a quiet market with only $5.5k traded in the last day.
- The market is niche and crypto-related, where an informed view on launch valuation could matter.
$1,815 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%
12-0 bettor buying Yes
A wallet with a perfect 12-for-12 resolved record just made a nearly $4k bet equivalent to buying Yes at 22¢, and the size was over 7.7x this market’s recent trading volume.
- This bettor has won 12 of 12 resolved trades and is up $84.5k lifetime
- Their trade was bigger than 7.7x the market’s recent volume, showing clear conviction
- Selling No at 78¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 22¢, close to the current 21-22¢ market
$3,957 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x9d32...0fb9 — Yes, $32,472 (96% win rate)
- 0x6138...97a0 — No, $20,000 (51% win rate)
- 0xcc29...7774 — Yes, $16,526 (59% win rate)
- 0x99f6...37fc — No, $16,000 (80% win rate)
- 0x0826...0b32 — No, $15,000 (61% win rate)
- 0x6fbb...a41a — No, $14,410
- 0x5ccf...fca1 — Yes, $9,792 (100% win rate)
- 0x014c...820c — No, $7,867 (41% win rate)
- 0xebc0...5aaf — Yes, $7,090 (86% win rate)
- 0xa92d...23ed — Yes, $6,830
Related Theses
Variational FDV tops $500M
Covers 2 related markets
