Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
8 signals across 3 markets · $25,510 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2028
This Variational FDV prediction market tracks whether the project's governance token will reach key fully diluted valuation thresholds one day after launch. Traders are betting on outcomes above $200M and $500M, with PolySpotter tracking $14,608 in smart money activity and recent signals from profitable crypto-focused bettors buying Yes.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable wallet on quiet market
Profitable high-volume wallet made a concentrated Yes bet on a very quiet token-FDV market while also positioning across the same event.
$3,705Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 7.0 - Thin-market crypto bettor
A moderately proven bettor with a 75% win rate just put nearly $8.9k into a thin crypto launch market, including an early fill at 38¢ that quickly moved to 60¢.
$8,836Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 5.0 - 92% winner buying Yes
Sharp serial cross-market wallet with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes on a crypto FDV market.
$1,142Wallet win rate: 91%Score: 4.0 - 84% winner buying Yes
Sharp profitable wallet with an 84% resolved win rate is buying Yes on a relatively quiet crypto FDV market.
$2,217Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 3.0 - Sharp crypto bettor buying YES
Sharp profitable wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win rate is buying Yes on a niche crypto FDV market where specialized knowledge could matter.
$2,446Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 3.0 - 96% winner buying quiet crypto launch
A high-win-rate wallet with $47k profit made a fresh Yes bet on a quiet crypto FDV market, though the size is modest and price has moved against them.
$1,815Wallet win rate: 96%Score: 3.0 - Perfect-record crypto bettor
Surface due to the sharp-wallet override: this wallet is 11-for-11 with positive P&L and is buying Yes in a relatively quiet niche crypto market.
$1,393Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 2.0 - 12-0 bettor buying Yes
A wallet with a perfect 12-for-12 resolved record just made a nearly $4k bet equivalent to buying Yes at 22¢, and the size was over 7.7x this market’s recent trading volume.
$3,957Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x5c23de…c465$8,836 · 1 market · 1 alert · 75% wins
- 0xebc05b…5aaf$4,663 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xe55108…0a67$3,957 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x0af593…2470$3,705 · 1 market · 1 alert · 73% wins
- 0x9d32ad…0fb9$1,815 · 1 market · 1 alert · 96% wins
- 0xa35d92…c048$1,393 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x66ad42…cc4e$1,142 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
FAQs
What are the Variational FDV prediction market odds tracking?
This event covers multiple Variational launch valuation markets, including whether the token's fully diluted valuation will be above $200M or above $500M one day after launch.
What is the smart money doing on Variational FDV?
PolySpotter has tracked $14,608 in smart money activity across the event. Recent alerts include a 96% winner buying a quiet crypto launch market and a 12-0 bettor buying Yes, suggesting some sharp traders are positioning for higher FDV outcomes.
How will the Variational FDV market resolve?
The market resolves based on the token's FDV one day after launch, defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price.
What counts as Variational's token launch?
The governance token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. If that condition is met, the FDV is measured the next calendar day at 4:00 PM ET.
Where can I follow Variational Polymarket odds?
This PolySpotter event hub tracks the Variational FDV Polymarket odds across all related thresholds, along with smart money signals and notable trader activity.