This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $38.5K lifetime. They bought $1.6K of No in a thin market with a 6¢ spread. Entry at 90¢ shows they are backing the current 88% favorite with conviction.

Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

Resolved2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?$1,620 tracked1 signalGlobal TempWeatherScience

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.