Part of: 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
This prediction market asks whether May 2026 will rank as the 4th hottest or lower among all Mays in NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. It resolves using NASA GISS data for the May column, with ties for 1st, 2nd, or 3rd counted in those higher brackets. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,620 in smart money for this market, including a recent NO-buying signal from an 81% winner.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,620.
Categories: Global Temp, Weather, Science
Notable Trades
81% winner buying NO
Proven high-sample wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate is buying NO on a relatively thin, wide-spread market, though the bet size and signal strength are moderate.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $38.5K lifetime.
- They bought $1.6K of No in a thin market with a 6¢ spread.
- Entry at 90¢ shows they are backing the current 88% favorite with conviction.
$1,620 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0xa49b...7054 — No, $15,389 (81% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $13,752
- 0xe3a1...64a3 — Yes, $10,000 (39% win rate)
- 0x3e26...3edf — Yes, $9,041
- 0x1186...051b — No, $7,130 (64% win rate)
- 0x4e39...8cbf — Yes, $2,988
- 0x51b1...7865 — Yes, $2,000
- 0xe85c...ed6b — Yes, $1,925
- 0x2943...295b — Yes, $1,216
- 0x7495...7fcf — Yes, $1,200
