2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
3 signals across 3 markets · $6,194 tracked · resolves Jun 10, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction market odds on how May 2026 will rank among the hottest Mays on record, based on NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Traders are pricing outcomes for whether May 2026 finishes as the 3rd hottest May ever or falls to 4th place or lower, with PolySpotter tracking $3,560 in smart money activity across the event.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- 81% winner buying NO
A highly proven wallet with an 81% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No in a relatively thin market while also positioning across related markets.
$1,940Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 6.0 - Profitable thin-market bettor
A profitable wallet made a market-moving Yes bet that was over 7x the market’s 24h volume in a very thin climate market.
$2,634Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 4.0 - 81% winner buying NO
Proven high-sample wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate is buying NO on a relatively thin, wide-spread market, though the bet size and signal strength are moderate.
$1,620Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 3.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0xa49b6e…7054$3,560 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 68% wins
- 0x118689…051b$2,634 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that May 2026 is the 3rd hottest on record?
The live Polymarket odds are determined by trading across the event’s child markets, including the market for May 2026 finishing as the 3rd hottest May on record. PolySpotter tracks those prices along with smart money signals to show how informed traders are positioning.
What outcomes are being traded for May 2026 temperature rankings?
This event covers two main outcomes: whether May 2026 is the 3rd hottest May on record, or whether it ranks 4th hottest or lower. Ties for a ranking count for the bracket they tie with under the market rules.
What is the smart money doing on this event?
PolySpotter has tracked $3,560 in smart money activity and 2 signals across the event. Recent alerts show an 81% winner buying NO, suggesting at least one high-performing trader is betting against one of the listed outcomes.
How will this Polymarket event resolve?
The event resolves using NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, specifically the May column in the table titled “GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius.” Resolution is expected by June 10, 2026.