Part of: Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
This Polymarket prediction market covers the Counter-Strike 2 best-of-three match between TheMongolz and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Astana Group Stage. It resolves to the team that wins the match, with fallback rules if the match is canceled, tied, or delayed more than 7 days; PolySpotter is tracking $6,563 in smart money and 2 smart money signals on this market.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between TheMongolz and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 13 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,451.
Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
98% winner buying coinflip
A highly profitable bettor with a 40-1 resolved record is buying TheMongolz at near-even odds.
- This bettor has won 40 of 41 resolved trades and is up $37K lifetime.
- They are buying TheMongolz at 51¢ in a market priced almost exactly as a coinflip.
- Their past wins came at an average 63¢ entry, so this is a lower-priced bet than their usual winner.
$1,530 on TheMongolz | Wallet win rate: 98%
93% winner backs favorite
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 93% resolved win rate bought $5,000 of TheMongolz at 51¢.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $252,731 lifetime.
- They have traded 147 markets across 134 events, suggesting a repeatable sports/esports edge.
- Entry at 51¢ means they are backing TheMongolz in what the market prices as nearly a coin flip.
$5,000 on TheMongolz | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable serial esports bettor
Serial cross-market sports/esports bettor with a large resolved sample, 61% win rate, and nearly $100k profit is buying Aurora at even money.
- This bettor has a strong long-term record: 61% wins across 551 resolved bets and $96.5k profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 32 events and $64k flagged volume.
- Buying Aurora at 50¢ implies they see better than even-money value in a market now around 52¢.
$1,563 on Aurora Gaming | Wallet win rate: 61%
Profitable serial esports bettor
Profitable high-volume bettor with a 242-bet track record bought Aurora at 42¢ in a thin esports market before the price moved to 48¢.
- This bettor has won 62% of 242 resolved bets and is up $129k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 105 events, with $678k tracked in similar positioning.
- Their 42¢ Aurora entry was large for this market, about 81% of recent 24h volume, and the price has already moved to 48¢.
$1,358 on Aurora Gaming | Wallet win rate: 62%
Top Holders
- 0x30c7...ac3b — Aurora Gaming, $26,580 (62% win rate)
- 0x6902...b4ca — TheMongolz, $9,865 (93% win rate)
- 0xc49f...9e05 — Aurora Gaming, $6,863 (96% win rate)
- 0xc65c...ea39 — Aurora Gaming, $5,049 (54% win rate)
- 0xa7df...5eee — Aurora Gaming, $5,048 (50% win rate)
- 0x4b59...3aa6 — Aurora Gaming, $5,048 (61% win rate)
- 0x50ac...a924 — TheMongolz, $4,115 (53% win rate)
- 0xcb51...d2f5 — Aurora Gaming, $4,000 (65% win rate)
- 0x5f45...a77a — TheMongolz, $4,000 (62% win rate)
- 0xf917...bde0 — TheMongolz, $3,000 (98% win rate)
