Part of: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office (Even Higher Strikes)

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,627.

Categories: Movies, Culture, Spider-Man, box office

Notable Trades

Serial trader scaling into Yes

A serial cross-market trader added a large Yes position in a thin market, with the trade exceeding total 24-hour volume despite only moderate historical performance.

The $4,691 purchase was larger than the market’s entire $4,335 in 24-hour volume.
This trader already had $10,431 invested in Yes and is adding at the same 45¢ entry.
The wallet has traded across 520 markets and is up $127,910 overall, though its 68% win rate is not exceptional.

$1,999 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Winning bettor adds to Yes

A bettor with a strong 95-28 record is adding nearly $2,000 to an existing Yes position after a sharp 28-point market repricing.

This bettor has won 77% of 123 resolved trades, with average winning entries around 67%.
They added $1,936 to an existing Yes position, bringing their total investment near $4,600.
Yes has surged 28 percentage points beyond its prior trading range, with more than $20,000 traded in 24 hours.

$1,937 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Serial trader scaling into Yes

A serial cross-market trader added a large Yes position in a thin market, with the trade exceeding total 24-hour volume despite only moderate historical performance.

The $4,691 purchase was larger than the market’s entire $4,335 in 24-hour volume.
This trader already had $10,431 invested in Yes and is adding at the same 45¢ entry.
The wallet has traded across 520 markets and is up $127,910 overall, though its 68% win rate is not exceptional.

$4,691 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 36172880, $42,855
0x2a01...6397 — Outcome 34336750, $18,922 (80% win rate)
0x8390...09f1 — Outcome 34336750, $3,090 (77% win rate)
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 34336750, $2,168 (49% win rate)
0xe2b1...7d2a — Outcome 34336750, $2,000 (46% win rate)
0x332e...fd5d — Outcome 34336750, $1,800 (21% win rate)
0xb028...8686 — Outcome 34336750, $1,201 (55% win rate)
0x215a...254c — Outcome 34336750, $1,021
0x7e25...9712 — Outcome 34336750, $990 (31% win rate)
0x43cb...84df — Outcome 34336750, $932

Related Theses

Spider-Man grosses $800–900M domestically

Covers 2 related markets

Backrooms earns $11-12M weekend

Covers 1 related market

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?

Resolved"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office (Even Higher Strikes)$8,627 tracked3 signalsMoviesCultureSpider-Manbox office

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Price History — “Yes”

92¢

55¢

18¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction