How will the Prymorske capture market resolve?

The market resolves “Yes” if any part of the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E is shaded red on the ISW map by 11:59 PM ET on the resolution date. If it is not shaded red by then, the market resolves “No.”

When does this Russia Prymorske prediction market end?

The listed resolution date is December 31, 2026. The market’s description specifies the relevant deadline as 11:59 PM ET on that date.

What does smart money show for this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,600 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market, including activity from a profitable 615-bet bettor.

Why does this market use the ISW map?

The ISW map provides the defined resolution source for territorial control. In this market, the intersection is considered captured only if it appears shaded red on that map by the deadline.

Part of: Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?

Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?

Q: What is the Polymarket market on Russia capturing Prymorske?

This market predicts whether Russia will capture the specified intersection in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by December 31, 2026. The outcome is determined using the ISW map.

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture a specified intersection in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on the ISW map: the market resolves “Yes” if any part of the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E is shaded red by the deadline, and “No” otherwise. PolySpotter is tracking $1,600 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,600.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Profitable 615-bet bettor

Despite the weak standalone low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because a profitable 615-bet wallet with a 76% win rate is buying No in a thin geopolitics market.

This bettor has won 76% of 615 resolved trades and is up $22,274 lifetime.
The $1,600 No buy is large for this quiet market, equal to 64% of the last 24 hours of volume.
Entry at 69¢ implies they see Russia failing to capture Prymorske as underpriced.

$1,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

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Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?$1,600 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsUkraineUkraine Map

Yes

6¢

94¢

Yes

6¢

94¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.623814° N, 35.288073° E in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske1.png Intersection Location in Prymorske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske2.png Prymorske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Prymorske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/24Phjwny3eMMMZ3A8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “No”

96¢

94¢

91¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction