What is the China-Philippines military clash prediction market?

It is a prediction market on whether China and the Philippines will experience a qualifying military encounter during the specified period before the end of 2026.

What counts as a military encounter in this market?

The market defines a military encounter as direct use of force between Chinese and Philippine military forces, including missile strikes, artillery fire, exchanged gunfire, or other direct military engagement.

When does the China-Philippines clash market resolve?

The market resolves after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, once it is determined whether a qualifying encounter occurred during the market window.

What does a Yes outcome mean?

Yes means that a qualifying military encounter between the military forces of China and the Philippines occurred between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026.

What does a No outcome mean?

No means that no event meeting the market’s definition of a military encounter occurred during the specified resolution period.

Part of: China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

This prediction market asks whether Chinese and Philippine military forces will have a direct military encounter between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. A qualifying event includes force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchanged gunfire, or other direct military engagement; the market resolves Yes or No based on the stated criteria.

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $146,017.

Categories: China, World, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Elite serial bettor buys NO

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate and $1.6M profit bought No on a geopolitical market despite only a moderate standalone signal.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $1.6M lifetime.
They have traded across 74 events with $14.2M total volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
Buying No at 85¢ means they are backing no China-Philippines military clash before 2027.

$3,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Four-wallet Yes rotation after sharp repricing

Four wallets collectively rotated toward Yes, including a highly profitable serial trader, alongside a sharp 57.5% one-day repricing toward a China-Philippines clash.

Four wallets put roughly $7,070 behind Yes, with three converting No sales into effective Yes exposure.
A serial cross-market trader with a 72% win rate and $256,000 lifetime profit is among the participants.
Yes has surged 57.5% in one day, suggesting the coordinated flow coincided with a major repricing.

$7,070 on Yes

Funded cluster reinforces No

A funded two-wallet cluster is reinforcing No amid an extraordinary 431x volume spike and strong upward repricing, though the trader is adding to an existing position rather than opening a fresh one.

Two wallets sharing a funder have placed $17,111 on the same market direction.
Trading volume spiked 431.8x above its historical average, while No moved up 17% in one day.
This wallet is adding $5,259 to an existing No position, buying at 72¢ after entering earlier at 67¢.

$5,259 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Six-wallet cluster backing No

A proven bettor with a 79% win rate added $4,472 to an existing No position amid a six-wallet funded cluster, making this a notable high-conviction trade despite adverse price movement.

This bettor has won 79% of 34 resolved trades and earned $26,434 in profit.
They added $4,472 to an existing No position, while six wallets sharing a funder have committed $8,900 overall.
No has since fallen from the roughly 54–55¢ entry to about 42¢, so the signal is notable but currently underwater.

$3,855 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Six-wallet cluster backing No

A proven bettor with a 79% win rate added $4,472 to an existing No position amid a six-wallet funded cluster, making this a notable high-conviction trade despite adverse price movement.

This bettor has won 79% of 34 resolved trades and earned $26,434 in profit.
They added $4,472 to an existing No position, while six wallets sharing a funder have committed $8,900 overall.
No has since fallen from the roughly 54–55¢ entry to about 42¢, so the signal is notable but currently underwater.

$4,472 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

17-wallet cluster buys YES

A wallet from a large 17-wallet funded cluster effectively bought Yes at 14¢ with a bet far larger than the market’s daily volume.

A 17-wallet funded cluster is effectively backing Yes on this geopolitical market.
The $8.4K trade is over 33x the market’s 24-hour volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet book.
Selling No at 86¢ equals buying Yes at 14¢, implying a long-shot bet with large upside if tensions escalate.

$2,950 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Elite serial bettor buys NO

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate and $1.6M profit bought No on a geopolitical market despite only a moderate standalone signal.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $1.6M lifetime.
They have traded across 74 events with $14.2M total volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
Buying No at 85¢ means they are backing no China-Philippines military clash before 2027.

$6,737 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Elite serial bettor buys NO

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate and $1.6M profit bought No on a geopolitical market despite only a moderate standalone signal.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $1.6M lifetime.
They have traded across 74 events with $14.2M total volume, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
Buying No at 85¢ means they are backing no China-Philippines military clash before 2027.

$2,731 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Repeat new whale buying NO

A repeat new-wallet whale is putting another $25k on No in a geopolitics market, with $78.6k total recently flagged and early positive P&L despite a limited track record.

This 18-day-old wallet has now had $78.6k in large flagged bets, suggesting deliberate positioning rather than a one-off trade.
They added $25k on No at about 80¢, a sizable bet in a market with $71k liquidity.
The wallet is early but profitable so far, up $2.6k with one resolved win.

$25,065 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Funded cluster scaling into No

A three-wallet cluster, including two wallets sharing a funder, deployed over $20,000 toward No amid an extreme volume spike and a sharp repricing.

Three wallets put $20,549 behind No, including two linked by a shared funder.
The trades arrived during a 323x historical volume spike, while No moved toward 70%.
One wallet has a strong long-term record with 59% wins and $584,270 in realized profit.

$8,713 on No

Top Holders

0xa163...de8d — Outcome 45858479, $99,329 (74% win rate)
0x61c7...5ddb — Outcome 45858479, $63,366 (100% win rate)
0x82fd...baba — Outcome 45858479, $61,519
0x5d2b...cb8c — Outcome 45858479, $31,484 (100% win rate)
0x44c1...ebc1 — Outcome 45858479, $25,598 (59% win rate)
0xa18c...d792 — Outcome 45858479, $22,851 (67% win rate)
0x57b0...76f4 — Outcome 45858479, $20,200 (79% win rate)
0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 45858479, $17,960 (67% win rate)
0x1f0a...f7aa — Outcome 45858479, $15,269 (70% win rate)
0x5157...aa2c — Outcome 45858479, $14,415

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China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

162dChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$146,017 tracked18 signalsChinaWorldGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes”

66¢

38¢

9¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction