The bettor sold Yes just 2.6 minutes before resolution, effectively buying No around 19¢. The market has since moved to No at 100%, so this was a correctly timed late fade. This wallet is profitable overall, up about $10.5k, but has only won 2 of 12 resolved bets.

The bettor flipped from a previous No position into Yes with about 21 minutes left before resolution. Yes had already jumped 57 points on the day, and this buy helped push it beyond its prior price range. This wallet has traded $78.8M on resolved markets and is up about $215k lifetime.

Part of: Elon Musk # tweets May 19 - May 26, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 19 12:00 PM ET to May 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,392.

Categories: Culture, Politics, Tweet Markets, Rewards Automation 200 4.5 50

Notable Trades

Last-minute No hit

Wallet sold the 240-259 tweet range minutes before resolution and was immediately proven right, though its overall track record is weak.

The bettor sold Yes just 2.6 minutes before resolution, effectively buying No around 19¢.
The market has since moved to No at 100%, so this was a correctly timed late fade.
This wallet is profitable overall, up about $10.5k, but has only won 2 of 12 resolved bets.

$4,484 on No | Wallet win rate: 17%

Sharp last-minute flipper

Sharp 85% winner flipped from No to Yes minutes before resolution on a tweet-count market where real-time tracking can create an edge.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is profitable across 34 markets.
They flipped from a closed No position into Yes just 7 minutes before resolution.
The market has moved hard toward Yes today, up 52.5 percentage points, suggesting late momentum behind this side.

$1,482 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Late flip into Yes

Late pre-resolution buy on a countable Elon tweet market after a major price breakout, from a high-volume trader who flipped from a prior No position to Yes.

The bettor flipped from a previous No position into Yes with about 21 minutes left before resolution.
Yes had already jumped 57 points on the day, and this buy helped push it beyond its prior price range.
This wallet has traded $78.8M on resolved markets and is up about $215k lifetime.

$1,218 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 17%

96% last-minute bettor

A highly accurate near-resolution bettor bought Yes 17.5 minutes before close alongside a major upward price breakout, suggesting possible live-count edge despite modest lifetime profit.

This bettor has won 96% of 421 resolved trades, showing a strong pattern of picking near-certain outcomes.
They bought Yes 17.5 minutes before resolution, when live tweet-count information is most valuable.
Yes has surged 57 points in the past day and broke above its prior range, suggesting the market is rapidly repricing.

$2,207 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%