Part of: Durable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,717.

Categories: Economy, Growth, Goods, rewards 200, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Thin-market macro conviction

A profitable wallet made a $3.7k No bet that overwhelmed a nearly inactive macro market and also appears positioned across related durable-goods brackets.

  • A $3.7k No buy dwarfed this quiet market, with only about $10 of recent volume and $1.1k total volume.
  • The wallet is up $78.7k lifetime and is also active across 3 related durable-goods markets.
  • The bettor paid about 79¢ for No, signaling strong confidence that the 2%-4% bracket will miss.

$3,717 on No | Wallet win rate: 39%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 61563998, $2,166
  2. 0x8454...331a Outcome 70764875, $1,488 (91% win rate)
  3. 0x6f67...102c Outcome 70764875, $986
  4. 0x1cdd...e595 Outcome 70764875, $156
  5. 0x21a3...9e97 Outcome 70764875, $145
  6. 0xc518...2594 Outcome 70764875, $100
  7. 0x8a48...08c5 Outcome 70764875, $93 (57% win rate)
  8. 0xdad7...005a Outcome 70764875, $85
  9. 0xcfff...673d Outcome 70764875, $60
  10. 0xe6d6...58f0 Outcome 70764875, $53

Related Theses

Tread FDV stays below $40M

Covers 4 related markets

Durable goods outside zero to six

Covers 3 related markets

JNE certifies in July

Covers 2 related markets

Starships will dock by 2026

Covers 2 related markets

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?

ResolvedDurable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026$3,717 tracked1 signalEconomyGrowthGoodsrewards 200, 4.5, 20

This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Price History — “No
102¢
93¢
84¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?

25d ago

$3,717 on No at 79¢

Related Theses