Part of: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
This prediction market asks whether SpaceX will achieve the highest market capitalization among companies completing a U.S. IPO in 2026. Rankings are based on each company’s outstanding shares multiplied by its official closing price on its first trading day; the market resolves after December 31, 2026. Live odds were not included in the provided metadata.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $31,234.
Categories: Climate & Science, IPO, Science, Elon Musk, OpenAI, Business, IPOs, sam altman, Big Tech, SpaceX, Space, Finance, OpenAI IPO, Tech, AI
Notable Trades
92% winner trimming a large YES position
A highly profitable bettor with a 92% record sold a small portion of an existing YES position, so the trade is notable but not a clear bearish reversal.
- This bettor has won 92% of 1,881 resolved bets and is up $3.19M overall.
- The $1,716 sale trims a much larger YES position; about $45,440 in YES exposure remains open, so it is not a clear reversal.
- The equivalent trade is buying No at 56¢, but the position context makes this a cautious signal.
$1,716 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
85% cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate bought Yes amid a major volume spike and upward price momentum.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $42K lifetime across 313 markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $5.9M deployed across 307 markets.
- Market volume spiked 297x while the price moved up 11.5% in a day, supporting the Yes momentum.
$5,535 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
85% cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate bought Yes amid a major volume spike and upward price momentum.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $42K lifetime across 313 markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $5.9M deployed across 307 markets.
- Market volume spiked 297x while the price moved up 11.5% in a day, supporting the Yes momentum.
$2,036 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
85% winner buying favorite
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with an 85% record made a $5.7k Yes buy in a quiet long-dated IPO market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 85% of 220 resolved bets and is up $21k lifetime.
- The $5.7k buy was large for recent activity, accounting for about 60% of flagged 24h volume.
- Buying at 84¢ suggests conviction that the market favorite is still underpriced.
$5,703 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
New wallet scaling fast
A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly deploying size, with $24k across 12 flagged bets, though it has no meaningful resolved track record yet.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already made 12 flagged large bets totaling $24k.
- The bettor paid 89¢ for Yes, above the current 86¢ market price, showing strong conviction.
- This is a long-dated IPO market, so the signal is mainly the wallet’s aggressive early positioning.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
85% cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate bought Yes amid a major volume spike and upward price momentum.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $42K lifetime across 313 markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $5.9M deployed across 307 markets.
- Market volume spiked 297x while the price moved up 11.5% in a day, supporting the Yes momentum.
$1,167 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
85% cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate bought Yes amid a major volume spike and upward price momentum.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $42K lifetime across 313 markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $5.9M deployed across 307 markets.
- Market volume spiked 297x while the price moved up 11.5% in a day, supporting the Yes momentum.
$1,645 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
85% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate added nearly $10k to Yes on a relatively quiet long-dated IPO market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $42k lifetime across 313 settled bets.
- They put $9.9k on Yes, including an $8.7k buy at 84¢.
- The bet was large versus recent activity, suggesting strong conviction in a quieter market.
$9,900 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% resolved win rate bought Yes despite an already high 85¢ price, and the trade exceeded the market's 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $42K lifetime across 310 outcomes.
- They are a highly active cross-market trader, with $5.9M deployed across 227 events.
- This $1.5K buy was larger than the market’s entire 24h volume, signaling conviction in a quiet market.
$1,532 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $188,463
- 0x3a8a...7699 — Yes, $106,000 (64% win rate)
- 0xffbb...36e9 — No, $101,121 (71% win rate)
- 0x9afd...574b — No, $65,044
- 0x4d49...7450 — Yes, $50,000
- 0x134a...9e42 — Yes, $49,825 (85% win rate)
- 0x9032...8717 — No, $49,364 (50% win rate)
- 0x8a4c...532b — No, $39,100 (53% win rate)
- 0xdf1c...2ebb — Yes, $31,313 (94% win rate)
- 0x5c14...cc49 — Yes, $26,783 (85% win rate)
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