Part of: Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by...?

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,593.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Thin-market Yes whale

A single wallet made a $2.6k Yes buy that was nearly 8x the market's 24h volume in a thin Russia-Ukraine territory market and the price has already moved sharply higher.

  • This $2.6k buy was almost 8x the market’s 24h volume, a large conviction bet in a quiet market.
  • The bettor entered at 54¢ and the market is now around 68¢ after a 31-point move in the last day.
  • The wallet is modestly profitable so far, up about $12k across 6 resolved bets.

$2,593 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2758...a3af Outcome 85613623, $6,586
  2. 0x4f90...517d Outcome 85613623, $4,699 (54% win rate)
  3. 0xd53f...f3c7 Outcome 85613623, $2,642
  4. 0xf2f2...1762 Outcome 85613623, $2,588 (54% win rate)
  5. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 85613623, $2,400
  6. 0x844b...6143 Outcome 85613623, $2,107
  7. 0x9952...2edb Outcome 85613623, $2,000
  8. 0x81a6...762e Outcome 85613623, $2,000
  9. 0x78e2...da9d Outcome 85613623, $1,437
  10. 0xb57a...b8c3 Outcome 52297444, $1,157 (76% win rate)

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?

ResolvedWill Russia enter Huliaipilske by...?$2,593 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsUkraineUkraine Map

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.612850° N, 36.062680° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “Yes
90¢
58¢
26¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?

24d ago

$2,593 on Yes at 54¢