Part of: Durable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,133.

Categories: Economy, Growth, Goods, rewards 200, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Quiet-market macro whale

A single wallet bought a large No position in a very thin macro-data market, taking over most of the available liquidity and already moving with the market from 83¢ to 93¢.

  • This bettor put $1.1K into a market with only about $1.5K total volume, making the trade unusually large for the venue.
  • They bought No at 83¢ and the market now prices No around 93¢, suggesting the move was quickly validated.
  • The market is thin with a wide 8¢ spread, so a focused bet here signals strong conviction despite the wallet’s mixed win record.

$1,133 on No | Wallet win rate: 39%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 11059143, $2,166
  2. 0x8b44...63fb Outcome 80183941, $337
  3. 0x21a3...9e97 Outcome 80183941, $145
  4. 0x1e98...6345 Outcome 80183941, $100
  5. 0xc518...2594 Outcome 80183941, $100
  6. 0x8a48...08c5 Outcome 80183941, $93 (57% win rate)
  7. 0xdad7...005a Outcome 80183941, $85
  8. 0xa3e2...fdf8 Outcome 80183941, $64
  9. 0xcfff...673d Outcome 80183941, $60
  10. 0x9cb3...1367 Outcome 80183941, $41

Related Theses

Tread FDV stays below $40M

Covers 4 related markets

Durable goods outside zero to six

Covers 3 related markets

JNE certifies in July

Covers 2 related markets

Starships will dock by 2026

Covers 2 related markets

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May?

ResolvedDurable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026$1,133 tracked1 signalEconomyGrowthGoodsrewards 200, 4.5, 20

This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Price History — “No
102¢
96¢
90¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May?

27d ago

$1,133 on No at 83¢

Related Theses