Part of: May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,920.

Categories: Weather, Global Temp, Science

Notable Trades

Profitable quiet-market buyer

Experienced profitable wallet made a large No buy that dwarfs daily volume on a quiet climate market, with related positioning across the same event.

This bettor has 166 resolved trades and is up about $49k lifetime.
The $1.7k No buy was nearly 7x the market’s recent daily volume.
They have put about $4.9k across 3 related temperature markets.

$1,735 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable climate thesis bettor

A profitable, experienced wallet made an unusually large No bet on a very quiet climate market and appears to be building a cross-market temperature thesis.

This bettor has won 64% of 166 resolved bets and is up about $49k lifetime.
The $5.2k No buy was over 20x this market’s 24h volume, a large conviction bet in a quiet order book.
They have put $8.3k across 3 related temperature markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off trade.

$5,185 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 11031175, $13,949
0x3a5f...7036 — Outcome 10390362, $6,290
0x94c4...43ca — Outcome 10390362, $5,863 (78% win rate)
0x4cd0...5e51 — Outcome 10390362, $1,200
0x682d...4cd6 — Outcome 10390362, $799
0x250c...2774 — Outcome 10390362, $500
0xe3f2...e1c1 — Outcome 10390362, $422 (85% win rate)
0x0fe9...ea01 — Outcome 10390362, $412
0x9e8c...028a — Outcome 10390362, $400
0xbc64...d089 — Outcome 10390362, $153

Related Theses

July warming hits 1.20-1.24°C

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?

ResolvedMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)$6,920 tracked2 signalsWeatherGlobal TempScience

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.